Republicans in Florida and Texas Continue Making Inroads With Voters Even as Races Tighten, Polls Show

With less than a month to go to the election, pundits and voters alike are turning to polls to see if any trend emerges ahead of Election Day. But in places like Florida and Texas, it seems that the needle has not moved, with the two states polling about the same.

Florida and Texas have become Republican safe spaces in the last few election cycles, with not only former President Donald Trump winning the states, but also conservative governors and Senators making inroads with voters. That trend will likely continue ahead of Election Day.

In the latest Florida Atlantic University poll conducted by Mainstreet Research, for instance, the group surveyed 811 registered voters in Texas between Oct. 2-6. In that study, the former President held a 5-percentage point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, standing at 50% to her 45%.

By comparison, in Texas, that gap is largely the same. Recent polling numbers from the Associated Industries of Florida Center for Political Strategy showed the GOP candidate performing at 51% of support compared to Harris' 46%.

If these figures translate to the polling results on Nov. 5, it would represent a continuation of Trump's performance during the 2020 general elections. That year, Trump won both states by a relatively comfortable margin, winning 51% of Florida's support to President Joe Biden's 47%, and in Texas 52% to Biden's 46%.

Other polls show a similar trend in both Florida and Texas.

The Hill/Decision Desk's HQ polling index shows the GOP nominee ahead by 2.8 percentage points— 49.7% to Harris's 46.9%— in the Sunshine State. In Texas, Trump has a nearly 6-point lead, garnering 51.6% support to the vice president's 45.9%.

Both Florida and Texas are also gaining national attention as they have Senate seats being contested this year, and their races are increasingly tightening.

In Texas, incumbent Republican Sen. Ted Cruz continues leading the polls against his Democratic challenger, Rep. Colin Allred. In The Hills/Decision Desk HQ's polling average, Cruz holds a 3 percentage point lead, at 48.1% to 45%.

Texas Democrats are trying to close that gap, most recently by flooding in cash to Rep. Allred's efforts. In the third quarter of the year, which ran from the start of July through the end of September, Allred raised $30 million for his campaign, while Cruz raised $21 million across his three fundraising accounts.

In Florida, The Hill's polling average shows incumbent GOP Sen. Rick Scott leading his challenger, former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by 2.7 points, at 45% to 43%.

As of late-September, Democrats were contemplating a late blitz in the Florida Senate race. During a donor retreat that month, Sen. Gary Peter, the chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, told Axios their eyes were shifting to both of those states as they "hope to get resources into those states."