Republicans' chances of gaining a Michigan Senate seat after Trump-backed Candidate wins GOP primary

Former Republican Representative Mike Rogers is seeking to gain the senate seat being vacated by retiring Michigan Senator Debbie Stabenow after winning the party's primary.

After easily beating former Rep. Justin Amash and physician Sherry O'Donell propelled by the backing of former President Donald Trump, Rogers is set to face Rep. Elissa Slotkin in November. Theirs will likely be one of the tightest races in the country, according to The New York Times.

Democrats were initially expected to hold the seat, but the party has been struggling in the state as of late, partly because of criticism regarding the Biden administration's handling of its role in the war between Israel and Hamas.

However, the most recent polls from FiveThirtyEight's aggregator show Slotkin in the lead. The latest survey, conducted among 600 likely voters by the Glengariff Group between July 22 and 24, has the Democrat with 46% of the support compared to Rogers' 41%.

Another one from the same date but by Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research among more than 1,000 registered voters also has Slotkin in the lead by five percentage points, but 51% to 46%. All other surveys conducted this month show the Democrat ahead.

Analyzing the race, the New York Times highlights Slotkin's potential struggles as her pro-Israel stance could harm her with the significant number of Arab Americans and Muslim voters in the state, who have been highly critical of the government in this area. In fact, over 13% of Democratic primary voters chose "uncommitted" rather than voting for Biden, and their reluctance to vote in the elections could give Rogers an edge.

Republicans will seek to tie her with presumptive Vice Presidential nominee Kamala Harris in an attempt to erode her image of moderation. However, the Democrat might attack him pointing to the fact that he has moved to Florida and registered to vote in Coral Gables after stepping down from his post in 2015. Rogers moved back in 2023 but Democrats have been criticizing him nonetheless.