Republican businessman Eric Hovde continues to trail incumbent Tammy Baldwin in the Wisconsin Senate race less than two weeks from election day, but margins have narrowed to the point that the contest is now considered a "toss up" by a leading nonpartisan forecaster and the GOP is pouring money to flip the seat.
The latest survey, sponsored by the Republican party and conducted by the Trafalgar group among 1,083 likely voters between October 18 and 20 even shows Hovde leading by one percentage point, 49% to 48%. But all nonpartisan polls published during the month before that one still show Baldwin ahead by margins ranging between one and five percentage points.
One by Redfield & Wilton Strategies and The Telegraph conducted between October 16 and 18 among 622 likely voters shows the incumbent ahead by one point, 45% to 44%. Another also finished on October 18 and conducted by The Bullfinch Group among 600 likely voters has the Democrat ahead by four points, 49% to Hovde's 45%.
Encouraged by the trend, Republicans have been investing heavily in Hovde, a real estate mogul. A recent report by the Associated Press showed that Republicans have booked $21 million in advertising for the last three weeks of the campaign, compared to $15 million in spots reserved by Democrats.
Most of that spending comes from the Senate Leadership Fund, the political action committee led by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, which has reserved $13.1 million in ad spots. The PAC has recently come under criticism by other Republicans for what they claim is McConnell playing favoritism in allocating funds.
Regardless, Hovde is seeking to seize the funds. "The momentum's on my side," Hovde said in early October week during an event in Milwaukee. "I plan to win this race. I will win this race because I'm going to stay focused on what matters."
Democrats, however, have outspent Republicans on advertising in the Wisconsin race throughout the campaign, with $93 million to the GOP's $69 million, according to AdImpact, which tracks campaign ad spending. Baldwin's campaign accounts for more than a third of al Democratic spending on ads, while Hovde has been more dependent on outside groups.
The race will likely be decided by razor-thin margins, with nonpartisan forecaster The Cook Political Report shifted the race to "toss-up" status this month.
Cook's Swing State Project surveys show Baldwin's lead has shrunk since August, falling from a 7-point lead in August to a 2-point lead in mid-October, making it the closest Senate race across the five battlegrounds tested. And the polling average by FiveThirtyEight shows the Democrat incumbent with a 3.8 percentage point lead over her Republican challenger, a figure that has shrunk over the past weeks.
Baldwin's campaign "has been very vocal with their supporters that this race is tightening," according to Wisconsin-based Democratic strategist Thad Nation, and that's "absolutely" prompting more concern among Democrats in the closely watched contest.
"This is Wisconsin. It's a tight race. I mean, most statewide races here are determined by 25,000 voters or less," Nation said. "Headed into the last three-and-a-half weeks of this race— this race was always going to tighten."
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