Remittances to Mexico Dipping In 2025 After Record Year With Inflation To Blame, Analysts Say

Remittances to Mexico are showing signs of decline in 2025 after reaching a record $64.7 billion in 2024—equivalent to nearly 4% of the country's GDP.

According to analysts, this downturn reflects inflationary pressure in the United States, growing fears of deportation among undocumented workers, and increased scrutiny on money transfers at the U.S.-Mexico border.

Recent data from Mexico's central bank (Banxico) shows that remittances fell for the second straight month in February, reaching $4.45 billion—down from $5.22 billion in December and $4.66 billion in January, according to numbers obtained by Border Report. The number of transactions and the average amount sent have also declined, as February average remittances reached $381, compared to $393 in 2024.

Gabriela Siller Pagaza, chief economist at Grupo Financiero BASE in Mexico, said through social media that the drop is due to "a decline in the U.S. labor market, the depreciation of the peso and fear of going out because of the possibility of being deported." She noted that economic activity in the U.S. has slowed, limiting growth in remittance flows.

Jesús Cervantes González, head of Economic Statistics at the Center for Latin American Monetary Studies (CEMLA), said in an interview with América Económica on March 24 that deportations could further reduce remittances by between 1.3% and 3% in 2025. "It would be a fairly comparable effect" across scenarios, he added. Cervantez González added that, as a result, the 10-year growth streak in remittances, which began in 2014, could come to an end this year.

New U.S. regulations may also further dampen remittance flows. The Treasury Department issued a Geographic Targeting Order on March 11 requiring money service businesses in 30 ZIP codes near the border to report transactions between $200 and $10,000.

Under the order, customers must now provide official identification, including passports for non-citizens. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated to Border Report that the measure aims to counter criminal financial activity.

While the weakening dollar has increased the purchasing power of remittances in Mexico by over 14% year-over-year in February, the broader trend in 2025 appears downward. Banxico is expected to release updated state-by-state data in May, but early figures suggest areas like Chiapas, where migration in transit has declined, are already experiencing reduced inflows.