Registered Republican voters in Florida now outnumber Democrats by 1 million

The good news for the Harris campaign in Florida? The Democratic candidate has narrowed the gap in the state and has opened up a two-digit lead in Miami-Dade, the state's largest block of nearly 1.5 million voters, according to the most recent polls.

The bad news? The number of registered Republican voters in Florida surpassed Democrats by more than 1 million on Sunday, marking the largest margin for the GOP in the state since the late 80s.

According to the latest figures from county election supervisors, there are now 5.33 million active Republican voters in Florida, compared to 4.33 million Democrats. All in all, Republicans now constitute nearly 37% of the state's electorate, while Democrats represent about 29%. 3.92 million voters, or just over 34%, are unaffiliated with any major party or are registered with minor parties.

According to Florida Politics, several factors have contributed to this shift. Florida, once considered a battleground state, has seen increasing Republican dominance, with the GOP controlling the governor's office, both houses of the state legislature, both U.S. Senate seats, and 18 of 30 congressional districts.

The Republican gains have also been supported by a recent law that imposes strict regulations on third-party voter registration organizations, which have traditionally enrolled Democratic-leaning groups such as Black, Latinos, and college-age voters. Many of these organizations have since ceased operations in the state.

Florida Politics also cites Florida's population, which has grown to over 23 million, as an influential reason for the political landscape, as the state has become a destination for conservatives relocating from other parts of the country.

A granular look at the numbers reveals that since the last presidential election, Republicans have gained control of eight additional counties, bringing their total to 57 out of 67 counties. Democrats, who once held majorities in 18 counties during the last presidential election, now hold majorities in just 10.

Despite these gains, Republicans still trail Democrats in several of Florida's largest urban counties. Besides the aforementioned Miami-Dade, Dems hold significant leads in Broward, Palm Beach, Orange, and Osceola.

The impact of registration numbers on actual voter turnout should, however, be taken at arm's length. In the 2022 midterms, for example, Republicans outperformed Democrats in voter turnout in Miami-Dade despite Democrats having a registration advantage, resulting in Ron DeSantis becoming the first GOP gubernatorial candidate to win Miami-Dade in 20 years.