Election Day is now four days away and the stakes have never been higher.
According to Friday's Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, the race is tied, with President Obama and Gov. Mitt Romney each getting support from 48 percent of voters.
According to RealClear Politics average of polls, Obama has taken over the lead that Romney has maintained over him for the past week, 47.5 to 47.3 percent.
Four years ago with four days to go, the incumbent was leading his challenger by six points.
According to New York Times' FiveThirtyEight blogger Nate Silver, Obama has an 80 percent chance of being re-elected on Tuesday.
"I haven't come across too many analyses suggesting that Mitt Romney is the favorite," Silver wrote. "Mr. Obama is leading in the polls of Ohio and other states that would suffice for him to win 270 electoral votes, and by a margin that has historically translated into victory a fairly high percentage of the time. The argument that Mr. Obama isn't the favorite is the one that requires more finesse. If you take the polls at face value, then the popular vote might be a tossup, but the Electoral College favors Mr. Obama."
No Republican has won the White House without winning Ohio.
Silver said Obama has an 80 percent chance of winning Ohio, a 65 percent chance of winning Colorado, a 79 percent chance of carrying Iowa, an 88 percent chance of a win in Nevada, a 66 percent chance of winning Virginia, and a 78 percent chance of winning New Hampshire.
If Silver's predictions are correct, Obama could add up to 56 electoral votes to the 270 he needs to win.
Silver has Obama winning 303.4 of the 538 total electoral votes up for grabs next week.
© 2024 Latin Times. All rights reserved. Do not reproduce without permission.
