Polls Split on Which Candidate Holds Lead in Tightly Contested Swing State of Nevada

With less than a week to go before the elections, polls show a close race in Nevada between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, with surveys offering mixed insights on which candidate holds an edge in the swing state.

Nevada, which is the smallest swing state with just six electoral votes, has voted for Democratic presidential candidates in every election since 2008, and President Joe Biden beat Trump there by 2.4 points in 2020.

A Cooperative Election Study poll reported by Forbes places Harris slightly ahead, with 51% support compared to Trump's 47% among likely voters, while another one by CNN/SSRS has the Republican up by a single digit, 48% to 47%. A third one released this week by Bloomberg/Morning Consult shows Harris with a slight lead of 48.8% to Trump's 48.3%, though the margin of error, at five points, indicates a near-tie.

FiveThirtyEight's polling average places Harris at a slight 0.1-point lead.

The race has spotlighted Latino voters, a critical demographic in Nevada, where they make up about 30% of the population. Again, polls are all over the place when it comes to the demographic, as a recent USA Today/Suffolk University poll shows Harris ahead by 16 points but CNN/SSRS ahead by just one point. In either case, her support is behind Biden's 61% in 2020, despite a massive media push in the state as of late.

The USA Today/Suffolk University survey also showed Harris lagging behind in one key demographic she's had trouble with across the country: young Latino men. Trump leads with 53% with those aged 18-34, as inflation and immigration rank high among their main concerns.

In response, the Harris campaign launched the "Hombres con Harris" tour in swing states, including Nevada, to engage Latino men. The tour included visits to Latino-owned small businesses and community locations. She also unveiled a series of economic measures geared at expanding opportunities for Latino men earlier this week, including assessing which federal government jobs should require college degrees and offering a $50,000 tax deduction for those starting up their own small business.