As the new year comes in full force, political risk consultants reflect on the major topics of 2023 and predict what will be the most influential conflicts of 2024. In general, the new year can be summarized in one term: the annus horribilis, or the year of disaster and misfortune.
Every year, Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy, releases their top 10 predictions for what international and global affairs will look like, as well as what the public should keep an eye out for. They believe that 2024 will look similar to 2023 in regards to conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and Israel-Hamas war. However, for the upcoming months, they will see much higher stakes.
For the group, lists of this nature are of extreme importance because they allow the public to get a glimpse of what their lives will look like in the near future and it aids policy makers, politicians and people in power to make better and more informed business and policy decisions.
Here are the top 10 risks of 2024 according to the Eurasia Group.
The United States Vs. Itself
With the US political system divided, the stakes for the 2024 presidential election are higher than ever. Public trust in governmental institutions is at an all time low and disinformation has inspired polarization and confusion among Americans as to what is facts or myths. Whether the Democrat or Republican candidate takes office for the next four years, it is predicted that this election will worsen the country's political division and test American democracy to a degree the nation has not experienced yet.
Increased Conflict in The Middle East
Following a multi-generation conflict, Hamas' attacks this past October on Israel shook the region to its core, shattered Israel's sense of security and increased violence in the Middle East. With no easy way out of this war, political risk consultants expect this issue to stoke political and religious extremism and deepen schisms within the Middle East and the rest of the world.
Partitioned Ukraine
Going into its third year, Eurasia Group predicts the Russia-Ukraine War will be here to stay. At a minimum, Russia will keep control of the territory it now occupies, and even take more land in 2024. According to the consultants, if Ukraine does not solve its manpower problems, increase weapons productions and set a realistic military strategy soon, it could "lose" the war as early as next year.
Ungoverned AI
In 2023, people across the world were able to widely see the power of Artificial Intelligence and technology overall. However, as this tool becomes more popular and used among the general public, gaps in governance will become more evident, regulatory efforts will falter and tech companies will remain unconstrained beyond the control of the government.
Axis of Rogues
Russia, North Korea and Iran are set to gain more strength and potentially disrupt the geopolitical order. With increased cooperation since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, their shared hatred for the US, and their willingness to violate international law, these countries are expected to become agents for chaos in 2024.
No China Recovery
Rises in the Chinese economy will raise false hopes of durable international economic growth. Beijing's failure to address the country's growth model will uncover financial fragilities, insufficient demands and a crisis of confidence that will question the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party.
The Fight for Critical Minerals
Critical minerals sit upstream of virtually every sector that will drive growth, innovation, and national security. In 2024, governments around the world are expected to take protectionist measures that will disrupt the flow of these minerals, increasing price volatility and reshaping supply chains.
No Room for Error
The global inflation that was initially seen in 2021 will continue to be present in 2024. High interest rates caused by stubborn inflation will slow growth globally, and governments will see themselves looking for alternative ways to stimulate growth and respond to shocks.
El Nino is Back
Following a four-year absence, the El Nino climate pattern will bring extreme weather events that may cause food insecurity, increase water stress, disrupt logistics, spread disease, fuel migration and political instability and more.
Risky Business
In 2022, customers, employees and investors were bringing the US culture wars to corporate boardrooms. In 2024, that is still the case. In other words, America's political divide is further fragmenting the internal market along party lines, increasing polarization and extremism in virtually every sector of society.
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