Businessman Donald Trump won the Latino vote during Tuesday’s Nevada Caucus. According to an entrance poll conducted by Fox News, 45 percent of self-identified Hispanic voters chose Trump compared to just 28 percent for Cuban Americans Florida Senator Marco Rubio and 18 percent for Texas Senator Ted Cruz. Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Doctor Ben Carson both secured less than 5 percent. Like many polls of Hispanic voters the poll was based on a small sample size of just 125 Hispanic voters and had a whopping 10 percent margin of error.
Trump’s showing proves that some Latinos will vote for him. Considering the mockery that Trump has received (admittedly even from the Latin Times), some are washing their smallest hats in preparation of an unsavory meal. If Trump’s trend continues, he may score a few points against “political correctness;” the idea that people who agree with his policies won’t vote for him just because he makes negative claims against their ethnic group or family heritage.
However, even if the poll was accurate, Trump’s victory in Nevada doesn’t prove that he’s “number one” with Hispanics. Assuming that the poll was accurate, he’s talking about winning 45 percent of the vote of 8 percent of a minute electorate (around 75,000 people ) among people who registered as Republicans. Also, the poll didn’t ask respondents particulars about their heritage. Are these Nevada Hispanics Cuban-American, Puerto Rican, or Mexican-American? We just don’t know.
Trump played the poll up...
"And you know what I'm really happy about? No. 1 with Hispanics," Trump said in a victory speech to supporters. "I'm really happy about that."
... while Rubio played it down
“The margin of error is huge," Rubio said on Fox & Friends on Wednesday morning. "It’s self-identified, by the way."
In July, Trump claimed that he could win the majority of the Latino in a general election. With Trump’s low favorability rating among Hispanics, that is still an absurd claim. But just as Sanders’ debatably won the Latino vote in the Democrat’s Nevada primary, the fact that we are discussing it is a victory in itself.
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