Nearly 1 in 3 Latinos Are at Risk of Deportation or Family Separation if Trump Wins, New Study Shows

Mass deportation has become the backbone of Republican candidate Donald Trump's immigration strategy during the 2024 election cycle yet analysts have been increasingly raising concerns about the economic and logistical hurdles of such a plan.

Undocumented immigrants, however, are not the only ones who may be affected by a Trump presidency as vice-presidential hopeful JD Vance has also floated the idea of certain immigrants with legal residency also being targeted, including DACA recipients. Trump himself has also pledged to end the CHNV parole program, potentially affecting up to 2.7 million people.

The sheer scope of such operations is the focus of a new study by FWD.us which has revealed that nearly 28.2 million U.S. residents, including 19.5 million Latinos will live in mixed-status or undocumented households as of early 2025, putting them at risk of deportation of family separation. In all, 1 in 12 people in the U.S. and nearly 1 in 3 Latinos are poised to suffer the consequences of Trump's immigration policies.

The final tallies include 5.1 million U.S. citizen children and 6.1 million U.S. citizen adults who live with at least one undocumented household member. Among these adults, nearly two-thirds are Millennials or Gen Z, and more than 1.1 million have an undocumented spouse.

Some 11.3 million U.S. citizens, and an additional 2.4 million lawful permanent residents (LPR) and nonimmigrant (temporary) visa holders, live in "mixed-status" households alongside an estimated 10.1 million undocumented individuals. A household is consider "mixed-status" when at least one undocumented person (including those with protections such as Temporary Protected Status (TPS), Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), or other immigration protections) living with at least one person who is a U.S. citizen, green card holder, or other lawful temporary immigrant.

Additionally, some 4.4 million undocumented individuals do not live in a mixed-status family. Most of mixed-status and undocumented households are concentrated in four states which account for 53% of the totality: California, Texas, Florida, and New York.

Despite longstanding policies emphasizing family unity, many undocumented spouses and parents of U.S. citizens are unable to adjust their status due to legal barriers. These limitations leave families vulnerable to separation, facing the constant risk of deportation of close family members. Additionally, nearly half of the fully undocumented households have members who entered the U.S. since 2020, many with temporary protections that could be rescinded under future policy changes.