Matt Gaetz's Chances of Being Florida's Next Governor are Doomed Unless Trump Intervenes: Election Forecaster

The House Ethics Committee found evidence that former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) paid tens of thousands of dollars to women for sex or drugs on at least 20 occasions, including paying a 17-year-old girl for sex in 2017. The investigation will likely have important non-legal implications in the coming years— Gaetz career as an elected official is likely over, according to a political analyst.

The bombshell report concluded that Gaetz violated Florida state laws, including the state's statutory rape law, as the GOP-led panel chose to take the rare step of releasing the report, which they had previously decided not to do.

"The Committee determined there is substantial evidence that Representative Gaetz violated House Rules and other standards of conduct prohibiting prostitution, statutory rape, illicit drug use, impermissible gifts, special favors or privileges, and obstruction of Congress," panel investigators wrote in a passage of their scathing report.

Gaetz has consistently been in the spotlight since the November elections. After President-elect Donald Trump claimed victory, he quickly nominated the now former Representative, who has been a staunch Trump ally in the House, to lead the Department of Justice as the next incoming attorney general, a decision that was met with uproar as critics pointed out Gaetz's lack of experience in the judicial system, as well as his past controversies. Despite low support, he resigned from Congress as the House geared up to release the report.

Gaetz then pulled his name from consideration amid opposition from GOP senators and after CNN, as well as other major news outlets, reported key details of the ethics report, which had not been released to the public, until now.

Following his exit from the House, the former MAGA representative had hinted that Florida's governor mansion might be his next stop. Last month, former Florida Rep. Anthony Sabatini said in a tweet that Gaetz "will be the next Governor of the State of Florida," to which the former Rep. responded with an image of the Florida state flag.

He also retweeted a meme about Florida's cold front and wrote "If I run for Florida, it will be one a platform to outlaw frost."

The new report, however, may have just killed any chances Gaetz had to remain in mainstream politics— unless a key player comes in.

"Many implications of this [report] becoming official, but one of the non-legal ones is that Gaetz's career in elected office is probably done," Lakshya Jain, an election forecaster said on X. "Virtually no chance he wins the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary (unless Trump pulls out all the stops for him and the field is split)."

Trump and Gaetz have developed a strong relationship over the years, as Gaetz has not been shy to serve Trump's interests during his time in Congress. When the president-elect nominated the Florida lawmaker to serve as attorney general, he described Gaetz as "a Champion for the Constitution and the Rule of Law."

"Matt will root out the systemic corruption at DOJ, and return the Department to its true mission of fighting Crime, and upholding our Democracy and Constitution," Trump said at the time. "We must have Honesty, Integrity, and Transparency at DOJ."

It remains unclear where the two lawmakers stand after Gaetz public woes. However, Trump has been vocal about his opposition to certain prosecutions, including his own, which include two federal prosecutions: once for possessing classified documents after leaving office and obstructing the investigation into his possession of them, and once for his efforts to remain in power after he lost the 2020 election.

Gaetz has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing and has pointed to the Justice Department declining to bring charges against him in 2023. In a statement released on X last week after CNN reported that the committee had voted to release the report, Gaetz denied having sex with a minor or paying women for sex.

"In my single days, I often sent funds to women I dated— even some I never dated but who asked. I dated several of these women for years," Gaetz said. "It's embarrassing, though not criminal, that I probably partied, womanized, drank and smoked more than I should have earlier in life. I live a different life now."