Mass Deportation Plan Could Uproot 2 Million Californians, Report Shows

A proposed mass deportation plan could uproot over 2 million people in California alone, according to a recent report from the American Immigration Council (AIC). With undocumented residents making up around 5.5% of the state's population, California is among the states that would be most affected by large-scale deportation. Texas and Florida, which also have high undocumented populations, face similar impacts, with an estimated 1.7 million and 1 million residents at risk of deportation, respectively.

Together, these three states account for nearly half of the country's undocumented population, meaning that one in every 20 residents could face deportation. The financial costs associated with these removals are significant. The AIC estimates that a nationwide mass deportation policy would cost at least $315 billion, with resources needed for enforcement, detention, and legal processing. This would place added strain on state and local governments in California, Texas, and Florida, all of which are already navigating labor shortages and economic challenges.

Beyond the government's financial burden, the AIC highlights the deep economic impact that removing undocumented workers would have, particularly in agriculture, construction, and hospitality— ndustries that depend heavily on immigrant labor. Nationally, undocumented immigrants make up roughly 13.7% of construction workers and 12.7% of the agricultural workforce. Removing these workers would likely create labor shortages, increase operating costs, and drive up prices for consumers.

The loss of undocumented residents would also mean a substantial drop in tax revenue. In 2022 alone, undocumented households contributed $46.8 billion in federal taxes and $29.3 billion in state and local taxes. Social Security and Medicare, which received $22.6 billion and $5.7 billion respectively from undocumented immigrants, would also feel the loss. In California, Texas, and Florida, the effects would be particularly severe as these states depend on these tax contributions to fund essential services and social programs, according to the study.

Undocumented households also support local economies through consumer spending, which totaled $256.8 billion in 2022, says the AIC. Removing these consumers from local markets would shrink business revenue, potentially leading to job losses and economic downturns that would affect even U.S. citizens.

The broader picture is equally concerning. Nationwide, the AIC estimates that a mass deportation policy could shrink the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) by 4.2% to 6.8%, or about $1.1 to $1.7 trillion—similar to the GDP drop during the Great Recession. Such economic disruption would likely lead to inflation and other challenges as industries that rely heavily on undocumented labor struggle to adjust.

The AIC estimates that removing 11 million undocumented immigrants in a single mass deportation operation would cost around $20.6 billion. Factoring in the 2.3 million additional undocumented arrivals from 2023 through April 2024, the cost rises by an estimated $3.4 billion. This brings the projected total cost of a full-scale deportation operation to approximately $24.1 billion, covering expenses for identifying, detaining, processing, and transporting individuals for removal, an estimate that AIC researchers consider "undoubtedly conservative."

Moreover, deporting undocumented immigrants would separate four million mixed-status families, impacting 8.5 million U.S. citizens with undocumented relatives, including 5.1 million U.S. citizen children, according to the AIC.

Another study, conducted by the Center for Migration Studies (CMS), showed that 5.8 million U.S. households include at least one undocumented resident. Of these, 4.7 million are "mixed-status" households, where U.S. citizens or legal residents live alongside undocumented individuals.