A mass deportation operation in the U.S. could trigger a recession, professor warns

Immigration remains a pivotal issue, with contrasting approaches presented by the major candidates. However, the most salient stance is Donald Trump's, who has pledged to implement what he has described as the "largest mass deportation program in U.S. history.

Public sentiment on immigration is notably shifting. Trump is generally more trusted than Harris when it comes to handling the issue, and, for the first time since 2001, over half of Americans (55%) are advocating for reduced immigration, driven by concerns that immigrants, particularly those who are undocumented, have become a drain on public resources and the economy.

However, a recent study from the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy presents a different perspective. The report reveals that undocumented immigrants contributed nearly $100 billion in taxes in 2022, despite their ineligibility for many of the benefits their tax dollars support. Of this amount, $60 billion went to federal coffers.

The study further indicates that undocumented immigrants often pay higher tax rates than some high-income American households. In 40 states, their state and local tax rates surpass those of the wealthiest 1%. While some undocumented workers use temporary identification numbers to pay taxes, many do so under false or incorrect identities, preventing them from accessing benefits like Social Security upon retirement.

In a recent interview, Ernesto Castañeda, Director of the Immigration Lab at American University, said that immigrants are crucial to the U.S. economy. He said that undocumented immigrants contribute more to public revenues than they receive in benefits and points out that they often face higher tax rates compared to U.S. citizens.

Castañeda went on to dispute claims made by politicians like Trump and his vice-presidential candidate, JD Vance, who suggest that undocumented immigrants are taking jobs from American citizens. He said that by filling labor shortages, immigrant actually support economic growth and job creation.

In terms of long-term solutions, Castañeda advocates for increasing temporary employment visas and legalizing undocumented immigrants currently residing in the U.S. He argues that such measures would enhance their tax contributions and stimulate economic activity. The Institute for Fiscal and Economic Policy study supports this view, suggesting that legalizing undocumented immigrants could boost tax contributions from $40 billion to $137 billion annually.