Martin Heinrich's Chances of Keeping His New Mexico Senate Seat Entering Final Month of Campaign

Democrats and Republicans are setting their eyes on a handful of Senate races to determine which party is going to narrowly control the Upper House during the next Congress. However, New Mexico doesn't seem to be among them.

Incumbent Senator Martin Heinrich has a solid advantage over his challenger, Nella Domenici, leading by two digits in all recent polls. The latest one, conducted by SurveyUSA and KOB among 619 likely voters between September 12 and 18, shows Heinrich with 47% of the support, compared to Domenici's 34%.

The previous study, by Research & Polling and the Albuquerque Journal among 532 likely voters between September 6 and 13, showed a similar gap: it had Heinrich with 50% of the prospective votes, while the challenger got 38%.

And the trend seems to be heading in Heinrich's favor, as the five polls conducted between May and mid August (two of them funded by the Republican Party) showed him ahead by single digits.

In this context, the Cook Political Report, one of the major independent, non-partisan elections and campaign analysis organizations, currently labels the race as "Solid Democrat." The party also enjoys a comfortable lead at the presidential level, with Kamala Harris ahead by 8.5 percentage points over Donald Trump in Real Clear Politics' average.

Heinrich is considered to be a more moderate left of center Democrat, and he first took office in 2013. In 2018, Heinrich won reelection with about 54% of the vote in a three-way race against Republican Mick Rich and Libertarian candidate and former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson.

Prior to his Senate tenure, he joined the AmeriCorps, worked as a mechanical engineer, managed nonprofits and founded a public affairs consulting firm.

He also was appointed in 2006 to be New Mexico's Natural Resources Trustee, spent four years on the Albuquerque City Council, and represented New Mexico's 1st Congressional District in the U.S. House from 2009 to 2013.

Domenici, on the other hand, has not previously held a public office, spending the majority of her career in the finance industry, working for large companies like Bridgewater Associates, Citadel and Credit Suisse First Boston. She also has a J.D. from Georgetown University Law Center, and a graduate degree from the Harvard Business School.