Latino Voter Turnout Surges: 17.5 Million Expected to Cast Ballots in November's Presidential Elections

An estimated 17.5 million Latino voters expected to cast a ballot in November's presidential elections, an 6.5% increase compared to 2020 and almost 40% compared to 2016, cementing the demographic's importance in tilting the scale.

The figure comes from a new report by the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO), which also drew attention to the fact that the growth is set to be disproportionate when compared to the overall population: "the national non-Hispanic vote is projected to increase by only 1.5 percent from 2020 turnout numbers," says the study.

The study also provided other, more granular data points at a state level. One of them is the projection that Latino voter turnout will increase the most in Nevada (15.5%), while also climbing in other states with large electorates from this demographic: California (6.1%), Florida (13.8%) and New York (12.4%).

NALEO also expects that turnout in Arizona, Georgia, New Jersey, and Texas will likely mirror that of 2020.

Overall, 11.1 percent of all voters are expected to be Latino, but the figures are much higher in some key states that allocate a substantial amount of delegates.

Latinos in California are expected to represent more than 28% of all voters. The figure is set to be 24.1% in Texas, 23.5% in Arizona and 20% in Florida. In New York, meanwhile, it decreases to 11.7%.

NALEO Educational Fund CEO Arturo Vargas said that "the projection is just a floor," and that "robust voter engagement efforts by candidates, political parties and other organizations are needed for the Latino electorate to realize its full political potential in Election 2024 and beyond."

However, the study also highlights some factors that could decrease Latino turnout, making specific reference to "health concerns, naturalization trends, the scope of efforts by candidates and political parties to engage Latino voters, the impact of misinformation and disinformation, the extent to which competitive races in individual states mobilize Latino voters, and changes in voter registration and voting laws and practices."

One of the most salient data points of the road to the 2024 elections in the U.S. is president Joe Biden's dwindling support among members of the Latino community. Numerous polls and surveys have concluded this to be the case, with some even showing Donald Trump ahead.

A USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll from late December showed Biden trailing Trump 39-34% with this demographic. The study highlights that in 2020 he had received 65% of the support, compared to Trump's 32%.

Another poll, from CNBC All-America, had Trump with a 5-point lead over current Biden in late December, becoming the first time the former President was ahead in such a poll over his likely competitor in next year's elections. The same poll from two months before had Biden with a 7-point lead.