Last Polls Before Presidential Election Show Neck-To-Neck Race, Averages Slightly Favor Harris

More than 75 million Americans had already cast their ballots for the 2024 presidential election by Sunday and, with just one day to go before Election Day, final polls are showing a neck-to-neck race between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump, with some pollsters giving a slight edge to the vice president.

According to FiveThirtyEight, which provides an average of national polls accounting for recency, sample size, methodology and house effects, Harris sits has a slight edge: she leads by just one percentage point, 47.9% to Trump's 46.9%.

The final NBC News poll before the election, released on Sunday morning, places both candidates in a tie at 49% each, with just 2% of voters saying they're unsure about their choice.

The findings also show a large gender gap in the race, with more than 30 points separating voting preferences. Women are supporting Harris by a 16-point margin (57%-41%) and men are backing Trump by 18 points (58%-40%). Regardless of who wins the presidential race, 60% of voters believe the country will remain divided.

The final Emerson College poll provides a similar snapshot of the general elections, with 49% support for each candidate, one percent support for a third-party candidate and one percent still undecided.

"The final Emerson College poll of the national popular vote, which doesn't account for the Electoral College, points to an incredibly close race," said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. "The gender divide is stark, with women favoring Harris by 12 points and men supporting Trump by the same margin."

Emerson College also found that 83% of respondents decided who to support over a month ago, while 8% made up their mind in the past month, 6% in the last week, and 3% have not made up their mind.

A noticeable outlier from all final polls is the one released by ABC News and Ipsos, which shows likely voters backing Harris over Trump 49% to 46%, a three-point difference. The results are similar from weeks prior for the pollster, as last week Harris led Trump by 4 points, 51% to 47%, and two weeks before that, Harris led Trump by 2 points, 50% to 48%.

The findings from ABC News/Ipsos, show Harris winning 7% of GOP support and Trump winning 3% of Democratic support. In all Harris has support from 11% of conservatives, while Trump has support from 4% of liberals. As for the aforementioned gender gap, the poll place it around 16 points, with Harris leading among women by 11 points and Trump leading among men by 5 points.