Kari Lake's Chances to Win Arizona Senate Seat Dwindle Even Further, New Poll Shows

Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego's lead in Arizona's Senate elections continues to be solid, with opponent Kari Lake's chance further dwindling as the time to go to the polls gets closer according to the latest survey on the race.

The study, conducted by The New York Times/Siena College, contemplated both a scenario with 713 likely voters and another with the same amount of registered ones. The Democrat holds a bigger lead in the latter poll, increasing his lead to nine percentage points and reaching the 50% threshold compared to Lake's 41%.

The former scenario, in turn, shows a six-point difference between the candidates, with Gallego getting 49% of the support and Lake 43%. The survey among registered voters is among the ones with the largest gaps. Only one in September conducted by Morning Consult among 862 likely voters showed a larger difference: a 14-point one, 53% to Lake's 39%.

As the race continues, Gallego has gotten significant backing as he seeks to maintain the lead. Concretely, the PAC affiliated with the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, CHC BOLD PAC, is investing $1.1 million in ads targeting Latinas across the state. Titled "Las Jefas" (The bosses). It is the biggest spend in the group's history, according to NBC News.

"Raised by a single, working mother, Gallego knows who is boss in Arizona. Grandmothers, mothers, sisters. The bosses. And in the Senate he will fight for them," says a narrator in the ad.

Gallego's apparent success in the campaign is further illustrated by the fact that the Democratic presidential candidate, Kamala Harris, is trailing Donald Trump in the battleground state.

The New York Times/Siena College poll shows that the former President is widening his lead in the critical state, currently standing at 50% to Harris' 45%.

Harris' recent standings in the state show a clear contrast between her figures in August, when the New York Times last conducted the same poll in the state. At the time, the Vice President showed a lead of five percentage points. A possible reason for this shift? Latino voters.

Latinos in Arizona appear to have moved away from Harris, the New York Times suggests. A significant figure of Latino voters in the state, 10%, say they are undecided, a move that benefits the former President.

Biden won Arizona in 2020 by just over 10,400 votes, making him the first Democrat to win the state since Bill Clinton in 1996, and only the second since Harry Truman in 1948.

Interestingly, respondents who said they were splitting their ticket— supporting Gallego and Trump— were much more likely to be Latino, less college-educated and lower-income.