SEATTLE - Less than two weeks since President Joe Biden announced he would not seek reelection and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris instead, the new presumptive Democratic nominee has seen a sudden increase in popularity as she prepares to be formally anointed at the party's national convention, which will take place in Chicago later this month.
Harris seems to have emboldener fellow Democrats and, according to two recent polls, her favorability numbers are surpassing those of President Biden and the Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump.
According to a July 28 ABC News/Ipos poll, Harris' favorability rating rose by eight percentage points to 43%, while a July 29 Norming Consult poll found a similar result, reaching a record-high 50% favorability, a higher share than what Biden or Trump have reached all year.
Speaking to campaign staff in Delaware last month, Harris acknowledged the "rollercoaster" that the past weeks have been, but expressed confidence in her new campaign team. "It is my intention to go out and earn this nomination and to win," she said. She promised to "unite our Democratic Party, to unite our nation, and to win this election."
However, political experts told McClatchy News that Harris' newfound support is taking place in the context of an election cycle, and is liable to fluctuate from now until Election Day as the novelty of her campaign wears off and Republicans ramp up their attacks against her.
Susan Ohmer, a professor of modern communication at the University of Notre Dame said that "people are relieved that President Biden has removed himself from the running and pleased that someone who is obviously younger and more dynamic will run instead," Ohmer said.
She also added that the fact Harris is "not well known to many" and the "general enthusiasm without much specific knowledge" are playing on Harris' favor in the next few weeks.
David Barker, a professor of government at American University said that Harris' popularity will likely peak during the Democratic National Convention, which is scheduled for mid-August.
"Historically, such conventions often produce what political scientists call a 'step effect,' meaning that the boost in candidate approval that follows a well-done convention is quite durable, relative to other types of campaign 'effects,'" Barker said.
According to FiveThirtyEight's poll aggregator, Harris holds a 1.2% advantage over Trump at the national level. Other polls conducted since Biden announced he was dropping out of the race on July 21, including studies by YouGov and Civiqs, also have Harris leading Trump by an average of two to four percentage points.
"A good rule of thumb is to wait until the week or two after Labor Day to see where the polls end up," John Fortier, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a center-right think tank, told McClatchy News.
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