Kamala Harris is gaining an edge in Pennsylvania through Latinos, poll shows

New results from a poll by TelevisaUnivision's Strategy & Insights highlights a notable change among the almost 400,000 thousand registered Latino voters in Pennsylvania as the November election fast approaches: 39% said they definitely plan to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris, a 10 point improvement compared to the answer given for president Joe Biden before he announced he would drop out of the race.

The poll also found that 42% of Hispanic voters have a favorable opinion of Harris, compared to only 22% who do of Donald Trump.

"In the past, it was a virtual tie and this breathed new blood into this cycle," said Kathy Whitlock, VP of Strategy & Insights at TelevisaUnivision to WHYY, referencing Harris entering the race.

One of the most revealing insights from the poll is the number of Latinos that consider themselves independents, a number that sits at 23% and compares to 57% who are registered Democrats and 20% Republicans. This, according to Whitlock, suggests that they're more likely to vote across party lines and that affiliation is less determinative:

"We've got a very young population, so a lot of them are first time voters. They haven't decided where they want to go, so they come in and they vote for their first time as an independent, which means they can belong to anybody."

The poll projects that 318,000 Latino voters will participate in the elections this year, a nearly 70% increase since Trump won the state in 2016 by approximately 44,000 votes. In contrast, the non-Hispanic voting population increased by less than 40%.

The issues Pennsylvania Latino voters care about

When it comes to the issues that Latinos most care about, the poll shows that they are more focused on the economy, with 82% citing the cost of living as a major concern, compared to 77% of non-Hispanics. Both groups share concerns about inflation, gas prices, and housing costs, with around 60% reporting a worsening of their economic situation over the past year. However, Latinos are more likely to believe that the Democratic Party can handle these issues better (55% vs. 41%) and are more optimistic about their future (60% vs. 48%).

On social issues, 32% of both Latino and non-Latino voters believe abortion should mostly be banned, with 58% of the former not willing to vote for a candidate with opposing views. Hispanic voters are more concerned about homelessness and crime in their neighborhoods and believe gun control laws would reduce crime. Education is also a significant issue for them, given their higher likelihood of having children.

On the all-important issue of immigration, a majority of Latino voters in Pennsylvania believe there are too many undocumented immigrants crossing the border (60%), that they are a drain on taxpayers (65%), and that securing the border would stop illegal drugs and sex trafficking (64%). However, they are also more likely to support a pathway to legal status for non-criminal undocumented immigrants (63% vs. 56%).