Kamala Harris expands lead over Trump in Miami-Dade and now leads by double digits, poll shows

Vice President Kamala Harris has expanded her lead over former President Donald Trump in Miami-Dade county, now leading by double digits, a new poll showed.

Even though the presumptive Democratic nominee is still trailing her opponent at the state level, the survey shows she could be narrowing the difference as the campaign heats up.

Conducted by Democratic strategist Christian Ulvert in the first five days of August and reported by the Miami Herald, the poll has Harris with 54% of the support, compared to Trump's 40%. It included 1,071 likely voters and has a margin of error of 4.6 percentage points.

A more granular look shows that Harris has the support of a majority of bot men and women. Among non-Cuban Latinos, 58% said they would vote for Harris, compared to 38% who voiced their support for her Republican opponent. Trump is leading among Cuban Americans, historically leaning toward the Republican Party: over six in ten will vote for Trump, compared to 33% who will support Harris.

Trump is still leading in Florida, but the latest poll showed a more narrow gap between the candidates. According to FiveThirtyEight's polling aggregator, a study by Redfield & Wilton Strategies among 976 likely voters shows Trump with 47% of the support, compared to Harris' 41%. Robert Kennedy Jr. (RFK) would get 5%.

Although the former president boasts a sizable lead, it is four percentage points lower than the first survey that included Harris following President Joe Biden's decision to drop out and endorse her (49% to 39%). Subsequent polls showed the distance to be increasingly smaller over the three weeks since that event.

Florida has voted Republican in 12 of the last 17 presidential elections, dating back to 1952. Trump beat Biden in 2020 in Florida 51% to 47%. The last Republican to win the White House without winning Florida was Calvin Coolidge in 1924.

Republicans also hold the lead in senatorial races, with Rick Scott still ahead of challenger Debbie Mucarsell-Powell. The most recent survey, conducted in late July by the University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab, has Scott with a four-point lead, 47% to 43%.

However, same as with Trump, Scott's advantage seems to have been narrowing over the past few months. In mid-April, two polls showed the incumbent with a comfortable, double-digit lead. Both were conducted by the Florida Atlantic University's PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research.

The one that interviewed registered voters showed Scott beating her rival by 52% to 35%, while the one among likely voters yielded a 53%-36% advantage for the Republican.

However, by mid-May a survey by YouGov among over 1,100 likely voters saw the gap reduce to the single digits, 45% to 37%. And two in early June already displayed a difference lower than five percentage points.