Jacky Rosen's Chances of Keeping Her Nevada Senate Seat Less Than a Month From The Elections

Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen seems to be on track to retain her seat in Nevada, with all recent polls showing her with a comfortable lead over her Republican challenger, Sam Brown.

The latest survey, conducted by RMG Research and the Napolitan Institute between September 30 and October 3 among 782 likely voters, shows her ahead by 16 percentage points (56% to 40%), the largest lead since at least late August.

All but three studies ever since show Rosen with an advantage of seven percentage points or more. Moreover, the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan forecaster, currently categorizes the race as "Lean Democrat," along with the Arizona and Pennsylvania races. Despite Rosen's solid lead, is one of only seven considered competitive at the national level and most races in the state are decided by razor-thin margins (the state's other Senator, Catherine Cortez Masto won by less than 0.1 percentage point)

Brown is consequently facing an uphill battle as he seeks to build on recent Republican victories in the state. Even though the last time the GOP won a senate race in Nevada was in 2012, the party won the governorship in 2022.

Brown, a retired army captain who earned a Purple Heart after being wounded by a roadside bomb in Afghanistan, was recruited in this campaign cycle after an unsuccessful attempt to take the party's candidacy for the other Senate seat in 2022. He also received an endorsement from Former President Donald Trump in June.

Rosen, on her end, was first elected to the Senate in 2018. Before, she served as a Representative of Nevada's 3rd Congressional District. A computer programmer, she serves on several committees, including armed services and homeland security.

Despite her lead in the polls, Rosen has chosen to keep the Kamala Harris campaign at arm's length, even skipping the Democratic National Convention. She was also named one of the senators who breaks from party ranks most often and has sought to cast herself as a bipartisan lawmakers willing to reach out across the aisle.

However, she did take part in a large rally in the state along Harris and Tim Walz in August, in what turned out to be one of the largest political events in the state's history, according to the New York Times.

Rosen's campaign has vastly outspent Brown's and held a cash advantage for most of the race. But the National Republican Senatorial Committee has purchased over $13 million in ads between August and election day to close the gap.