Iowa Republican In Danger of Losing District Trump Firmly Held For Two Elections

Democrats are seemingly close to winning back a House seat from Iowa where former President Donald Trump won the presidential race in both 2016 and 2020. A new poll by the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa shows Democrat Lanon Baccam ahead by seven percentage points in his race against incumbent Republican Zach Nunn.

The Republican closely won the House race in 2020, beating Democrat Cindy Axne by less than a percentage point, 50.3% to 46.6%. The race was also close in 2016, when Axne beat Republican David Young by 48.9% to 47.5%.

However, the current race might feature larger margins, with the poll showing the Democrat getting 48% of the support to Nunn's 41%. The survey's margin of error was 7.2%, meaning it would have to fully go to the incumbent for the race to be as close as it has been for the past two cycles.

The only non-partisan poll released during the cycle already showed Baccam ahead, although by a slimmer margin. Conducted by RMG Research and U.S. Term Limits between September 5 and 12 among 483 likely voters, it shows Baccam ahead by three percentage points, getting 42% of the support compared to Nunn's 43%.

Another survey sponsored by Baccam and conducted by GQR between September 19 and 22 among 400 likely voters also shows him ahead, this time getting 50% of the support compared to Nunn's 46%.

Former President Donald Trump outperformed House candidates in the past two elections, winning the district in 2016 and 2016. He beat Hillary Clinton by 48% to 45% in 2016 and Biden by just 0.1 percentage point in 2020, 49.1% to 49%.

The race at the state level dominated the headlines over the weekend after the releasing of a poll by The Des Moines Register, Mediacom and Selzer & Co. Widely regarded as a highly accurate survey, it showed Kamala Harris ahead by 3 percentage points, 47% to 44%.

It was an outlier, considering Trump has led in all previous and subsequent polls in the state. The previous one conducted by the same entities showed Trump ahead by 4 percentage points in early September.

And another by Emerson College and RealClearDefense conducted between November 1 and 2 among 800 likely voters showed Trump leading by 9 percentage points, 54% to 45%. Another Republican-funded survey by SoCal Strategies, On Point Politics and Red Eagle Politics has the Republican ahead by seven percentage points, 50% to 43%.