Immigration As Divisive As Abortion, Gallup Poll Finds

As with abortion, a significant portion of U.S. voters consider immigration as a matter of life and death. The life of the mother, the life of the fetus. The life of the refugee, the life of the illegal-immigrant-crime-victim. Readers who find those relativistic oversimplifications heart-wrenching, offensive or outrageous might count themselves among the 1 in 5 Americans identified in two separate Gallup polls that illuminate a divisiveness of immigration and abortion, which dogs the 2016 presidential election.

On illegal immigration , Gallup found that 20 percent of all U.S. voters would only support a presidential candidate that supported their own view. Hispanics, predictably, care more about immigration policies, with 25 percent saying that immigration is non-negotiable for their vote.

More surprisingly, Republicans (27 percent) care more about immigration policies than Democrats (18 percent). That could help explain why candidates who take strong positions on immigration such as Donald Trump and Jeb Bush have been major forces in the GOP race.

The poll offered three options: deport the 11.3 million immigrants in the country illegally (Trump’s view), allow them to stay temporarily (Jeb Bush’s view), or allow them to stay and work towards citizenship (no major GOP candidate has endorsed this.)

Voters who support temporary work visas were the most likely to dig in their heels, with 27 percent saying that they would only support presidential candidates who share their view. Voter with stronger positions were less likely to demand a candidate who agrees with them, including the pro-deportation (21) and pro-citizenship (18) camps.

Self-identified “pro-choice” or “pro-life” voters are similarly entrenched in their views. Twenty-one percent say abortion is a political deal-breaker.

Abortion has polarized the electorate for decades, with similarly opposing views fluctuating only slightly since at least 1997, according to Gallup’s polls. That’s why the abortion debate rages in the primaries: Democrats won’t go with a pro-life candidate, and Republicans won’t go without one.

One other factor has remained fairly constant: around 25 percent of voters say abortion is not a major issues. By contrast, only 17 percent say that immigration is not a major issue. That’s a significant difference, well within the margin of error.

To put it another way, 60 percent of voters consider immigration a significant factor, making it a bigger issue than abortion.

But there’s a large difference, as Gallup points out, citing those 27 percent of voters who support work permits but not citizenship (the “middle road”). Unlike abortion voters, immigration voters are less easy to explain through the lens of party affiliation.

“The basic results by party don't alone indicate whether a more moderate candidate on immigration (such as Jeb Bush or any of the Democrats) or a hard-line candidate on immigration (most notably, Trump) would be more appealing to voters for whom immigration is a make-or-break issue. However, analyzing voting preferences by voters' views on immigration policy indicates it is not necessarily the hard-liners on immigration who are most likely to require agreement on the issue.”

Accepting Gallup’s definition of a hardliner (pro-citizenship or pro-deportation), it seems like centrists are actually the most uncompromising. Immigration might be polarizing, but it is less partisan that we might think.

Are you a hardliner, or Gallup centrist? Let us know what you think about the polarization of the immigration debate in the comments below.