How Biden's harsh executive order on immigration could impact the Latino vote ahead of the elections

NEW YORK CITY - Biden announced Tuesday one of the most aggressive executive orders on immigration, which would essentially shut down the southern border when daily Border Patrol encounters reach 2,500 per day. During an election year where immigration is a top salient issue and the race seems as tight as ever, many are asking themselves, how will this affect the Latino vote?

Historically, while immigration does not top the list for Latinos as the most important issue during an election year, the demographic has tended to lean Democrat when it came to different social issues.

But recent polls have shown a rise in those agreeing with GOP calls for more border control, as well as increases in the percentage of Latinos who say Republicans and presumptive nominee Donald Trump could do a better job controlling the border than Biden.

Other reports have shown Latinos preferring harsh solutions to the migrant crisis. For instance, building a wall or fence on the border jumped from 30% to 42% approval among Latinos between December 2021 and March 2024, an April poll from Axios-Ipsos and Noticias Telemundo showed.

Now, amid changing attitudes on immigration from the electorate, the Biden administration has opted for going on the offensive. Earlier this year, Democrats supported a bipartisan bill that included border enforcement, added visas and green cards for some immigrants and tightened asylum laws, which Republicans— with Trump's support— have now voted twice to block.

The new executive action continues efforts at decreasing the migrant influx through harsh policies, all while emphasizing that more could be done through congressional action and criticizing Republicans for not playing ball. While it is still early to tell how, if at all, this will affect the outcome of the election, initial reactions to the order have been mixed.

When it comes to immigration, many Latino families—particularly Mexican American ones— who immigrated to the U.S. without illegally crossing the border or overstaying a visa are appealed by Trump's rhetoric, according to NBC News.

Sergio Watson, a 35-year-old owner of a small trucking company in Arizona was born in Sinaloa, Mexico, before his parents moved their family legally to the U.S. He cites the economy as his top motivating issue as a voter— but says the border is not far behind.

"I get it, people want to come and better their lives," Watson told the outlet. "But I also think they should do it the right way, and I see a lot of people who just want a handout."

Other Latinos, particularly those with "mixed status" families, in which they include at least one person without legal status, may be more apologetic to Biden's trajectory with immigration.

"Maybe Biden hasn't done too much in the eyes of people for the immigrant community," Luis Reyes, an Arizona State University student and a member of a "mixed status" family, said in the piece.

"But Biden did end up deporting more people than Trump," he said. "I'd definitely say he's cracked down on the border as much as he's able to."

Overall, as the election nears, some specialists believe, if framed correctly, the executive order could benefit Biden.

Latino voters generally reject the idea of mass deportations of people who have been here for many years, a plan Trump has been emphasizing throughout his campaign. Because of this, Biden can show he's committed to imposing order at the border, while also taking a "corrective step" on behalf of people here for decades without legal status, said Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, a Democrat-leaning Latino polling and research company.

"That is a very big difference and very powerful among Latino voters, even the swingiest Latino voters," Odio said.