The arrest of Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada, the long-revered leader of the Sinaloa Cartel, has plunged one of Mexico's most notorious criminal organizations into a state of disarray. Historically recognized as one of the most powerful drug cartels in the world, the Sinaloa Cartel was immersed in an internal war after the imprisonment of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán but now faces an uncertain future marked by fragmentation and internal power struggles.
The cartel, whose power and notoriety rivaled Pablo Escobar's Cartel de Medellín, was once united under a single leader, El Chapo, with El Mayo next to him. Nowadays, it's divided into four distinct factions, each vying for control.
According to the DEA's 2024 National Drug Threat Assessment report, even before the latest developments, the Sinaloa Cartel no longer had centralized leadership. As of May of 2024, the organization operated under an "umbrella" structure, with four primary factions and leaders: Los Chapitos, led by El Chapo's sons; the faction led by Aureliano "El Guano" Guzmán, El Chapo's brother; a faction formerly headed by Rafael Caro Quintero, who is now imprisoned; and the group once led by Mayo Zambada.
The Sinaloa Cartel is still divided in four, according to experts. The leadership and power seem to be in flux. This is what is known today.
Los Chapitos: The Legacy of El Chapo
After El Chapo is captured, his children break out more clearly into a new group called Los Chapitos. The organization's public face was Ovidio Guzmán López, who was captured last year. His brother, Joaquín Guzmán López, is also under federal custody and was allegedly instrumental in El Mayo's capture.
Although El Chapo is thought to have around 13 children, only four were active in the organization. This leaves less-known Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar and Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar as the leaders of one of the most influential groups within the fragmented cartel.
Los Chapitos are known for their ruthless tactics and aggressive attempts to consolidate power, often clashing with other factions within the cartel. According to military reports cited by media outlet Infobae, Los Chapitos have been particularly active in Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja California, where they have used violence to assert control over key territories.
Despite facing intense scrutiny from both Mexican and U.S. authorities, Los Chapitos continue to hold significant influence. The U.S. Department of Justice has been actively pursuing their capture, particularly after they were indicted for fentanyl trafficking in April 2023. The faction's resilience and strategic moves have made them formidable opponents in the ongoing power struggle within the cartel.
El Guano: The Quiet Power Player
El Chapo's brother, Aureliano "El Guano" Guzmán, leads another faction within the Sinaloa Cartel. He was considered an ally of El Mayo. The Tucanes de Tijuana's song "El Guano" narrates his story. Though less publicly visible than Los Chapitos, El Guano's faction holds considerable influence, controlling key drug trafficking routes. The DEA and other law enforcement agencies have identified El Guano as a significant figure in the cartel's operations. However, his faction has faced internal challenges and pressure from Los Chapitos.
Reports from security experts, including former DEA agent Mike Vigil, suggest that El Guano's power is waning, particularly in light of the ongoing conflict with Los Chapitos. Vigil argues that El Guano's faction may struggle to maintain its influence as the cartel continues to fragment.
Caro Quintero: The Narco of Narcos
Rafael Caro Quintero, once one of the most feared drug lords in Mexico, led a faction within the Sinaloa Cartel until his last capture in July of 2022. Known as the "El Narco de Narcos," Caro Quintero's influence has diminished significantly, especially following his arrest. While his faction remains part of the cartel's fragmented structure, it lacks the power and influence it once wielded.
Caro Quintero's arrest has left his faction vulnerable, with other groups within the cartel vying for control of his former territories. Analysts like journalist Anabel Hernández have noted that Caro Quintero's downfall marks a significant turning point for the cartel, further destabilizing its internal power dynamics.
The Zambada Legacy: El Mayito Flaco Takes the Reins
With the capture of El Mayo Zambada, the leadership of his faction appears to have passed to his son, Ismael Zambada Sicairos, known as "El Mayito Flaco." Despite maintaining a low profile, El Mayito Flaco has gained significant influence within the cartel. According to military reports and documents from Guacamaya Leaks, he has been systematically replacing his father's networks and now controls drug trafficking and money laundering operations in California.
El Mayito Flaco's ascension has not been without its challenges. The ongoing conflict with Los Chapitos, combined with the ever-present threat of law enforcement, has forced him to be cautious and strategic in his movements.
The Future of the Sinaloa Cartel
The fragmentation of the Sinaloa Cartel into four competing factions has introduced a new era of uncertainty for the organization. As noted by experts like Ioan Grillo, the power struggle within the cartel is likely to intensify, with El Mayito Flaco and Los Chapitos poised for a potentially violent showdown. As the cartel continues to fragment, its ability to operate effectively is increasingly doubtful.
Experts like Mike Vigil believe that the cartel's decentralization could lead to its eventual downfall, with internal conflicts eroding its power and influence. The relative calm currently observed may be a prelude to a violent power struggle reminiscent of past conflicts that have devastated other criminal organizations in Mexico.
As the Sinaloa Cartel faces this critical juncture, the world watches to see whether a new leader will emerge to unify the organization or if it will continue to splinter, paving the way for rivals like the Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) to dominate Mexico's criminal underworld.
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