Here's What Jair Bolsonaro Faces Next After Alleged Coup Plot Lands Him Historic Indictment

In a landmark moment for Brazilian democracy, former President Jair Bolsonaro faces one of the most significant legal challenges of his political career. On November 21, 2024, Brazil's Federal Police indicted him and 36 associates, including ex-Defense Minister General Walter Braga Netto and former aide Lieutenant Colonel Mauro Cid, accusing them of attempting a coup d'état following the 2022 presidential election.

What happens next could land them in jail for three decades.

The indictment, now submitted to the Supreme Federal Court (STF), alleges that the former leader and his associates sought to overturn Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's victory and undermine Brazil's democratic institutions.

If convicted, Bolsonaro faces significant prison time, which could permanently bar him from returning to public office. Already banned from running for office until 2030 for prior electoral offenses, these charges may mark the end of his political career. The allegations of a coup attempt and assassination plots are likely to erode his support among moderate voters, even as his loyal base remains steadfast.

The Charges Against Bolsonaro and Potential Penalties

The Federal Police's investigation produced an 800-page report detailing evidence of a coordinated effort to destabilize the 2022 elections. Among the accusations are plans to spread electoral disinformation, incite unrest, and even assassinate President Lula, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, and STF Justice Alexandre de Moraes. The indictment marks an unprecedented moment in Brazil's political landscape, as legal experts and political analysts closely watch the proceedings.

The charges brought against Bolsonaro and his co-accused include:

1. Violent Abolition of the Democratic Rule of Law(Article 359-M):
   • Defined as acts aimed at abolishing Brazil's constitutional order by force.
   • Punishable by 4 to 8 years in prison, with potential additional penalties for aggravating factors.
2. Coup d'État(Article 359-N):
   • The act of attempting to overthrow the government through illegal or violent means.
   • Carries a sentence of 4 to 12 years in prison.
3. Criminal Organization(Article 288):
   • Participation in a group formed to commit crimes against the democratic order.
   • Penalties range from 3 to 8 years, with added sentences for violent actions.
4. Incitement to Crime(Article 286):
   • Publicly encouraging others to commit crimes.
   • Punishable by 3 to 6 months in prison or fines.
5. Attempted Assassination of Public Officials(Articles 121 and 14):
   • Conspiracy or attempts to murder high-ranking government officials.
   • Sentences range from 12 to 30 years per count, depending on planning and execution.

What Happens Next?

Now under the STF's review, the legal process follows a strict timeline. According to Brazilian law, Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who oversees the case, will forward it to the Prosecutor General's Office (PGR). The PGR has 15 days to decide among three options:

1. Dismissal of the Case: If the PGR finds insufficient evidence, it may recommend closing the case, subject to Justice de Moraes' approval.
2. Request for Further Investigation: Additional inquiries may be requested to strengthen the evidence.
3. Filing Formal Charges: If the PGR finds enough evidence, it can file formal charges ("denúncia"). If accepted, Bolsonaro and his associates would become defendants in a criminal trial.

If charges are filed, the case would proceed to a pretrial phase, involving evidence collection, witness depositions, and digital analyses. This phase could last months, considering the case's complexity. The trial phase, if it occurs, would include a comprehensive review by the STF, with a final judgment potentially taking over a year.

International observers, including the U.S. State Department, have expressed confidence in Brazil's judiciary. "We trust Brazil's legal processes will be conducted transparently and in accordance with its constitution," the department said in a statement.