Harris Remains Ahead of Trump in Most Michigan Polls But Race Remains Razor-Thin as Election Looms

Gary Reed, former director of the Michigan Republican Party announced on Tuesday he will be voting for Vice President Kamala Harris this election, taking issue with the former president's fiscal discipline and "xenophobia." The public letter was a welcome endorsement for the Harris campaign which sees Michigan as one of three three "blue wall" states that could define the election next week, along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

On Friday, two new polls showed the Democrat with a slim lead in Michigan, although analysts have been quick to point out that the race will probably go down to the wire. One of them, by EPIC-MRA for The Detroit Free Press, showed Harris up by 3 points, 48 percent to 45 percent, revealing other insights such as the fact that the Democratic nominee's support among Black voters has gone up by 18 points since August, with the poll showing her outpacing Trump 87% to 5% among that demographic.

Another survey released on Friday, this one by Marist Poll, also showed Harris up by 3 points, 51% to 48%, accounting for likely voters who are undecided but leaning toward a candidate. The Marist poll, however, reflects a step back for the vice president as she was winning the same survey by five points back in September.

The trend has been replicated by several other polls this week, showing Harris in the lead yet with various gaps. On Wednesday, a Fox News poll of likely voters showed the vice president ahead of Trump 48%-46%, while another one by Cooperative Election Survey showed her up 51%-46%.

On the other hand, a Washington Post poll out Thursday showed Trump ahead by 47% to 45%, a clear sign that the race is razor thin.

In fact, Five Thirty Eight, which averages polls, accounting for recency, sample size, methodology and house effects, has Harris only up by one point, with just five days to go before the elections.

Joe Biden won Michigan by three points in 2020, after Hillary Clinton lost to Trump there in 2016 by less than a point, making her the first Democrat to lose to a Republican presidential candidate in Michigan since 1988. If Harris were to win al three "blue wall" states plus all of the other non-swing states won by Biden in 2020, she'll reach the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win the election.