The good news for the Harris campaign? She still holds a 12-poind lead over Republican candidate Donald Trump among Latino voters in the most recent poll by The Economist and YouGov. The bad news? It used to be a 17-point lead just one week before, as the former president continues to make in roads with the crucial demographic as the 2024 presidential race reaches its final days.
The poll, conducted from October 26 to 29, shows Harris with a 52% lead over Trump's 40% which, although seemingly a comfortable lead, has raised some alarms, especially as the Democrat lags way behind the historic Latino-voter threshold needed by Democrats to reach the White House (64%).
However, Trump's potential to further reduce the gap with Latino voters may be hindered by recent controversy at a rally in New York, where comedian Tony Hinchcliffe delivered offensive remarks about minority groups, especially after he referred to the island as a "floating island of garbage."
The comments have taken over the news cycle, as politicians and Puerto Rican celebs have been swift to condemn them. Trump himself has tried to minimize their importance, which some analysts believe could possibly affect him in swing states with major boricua populations.
In Pennsylvania, for example, Puerto Ricans account for 3.7 percent of the state's population which could tilt the scales as Biden won there by just 1.2 points in 2020 and around 579,000 Latinos are eligible to vote this November, according to Newsweek.
In Wisconsin, another battleground state, Latino residents make up about 7.6% of the population which, although not as large as the demographic's presence in places like Nevada and Arizona, could be pivotal as the last two presidential elections in the state were decided by less than 1% each (Donald Trump won in 2016 by 23,000 votes, while Joe Biden took back the state for the Democrats by just 25,000 in 2020).
The Economist/YouTov poll also highlights contrasting preferences among different voter demographics. For example, men are slightly more likely to support Trump, while women favor Harris by a margin of 50% to 43%. Trump leads among white registered voters, while nonwhite voters favor Harris by a substantial margin. The two candidates remain nearly even in other metrics, including perceptions of leadership strength and empathy for voter concerns.
As for the overall forecast, the poll found Harris ahead by a razor-thin margin leading Trump 47% to 46%.
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