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President Joe Biden's decision to drop out of the presidential race and endorse his vice president, Kamala Harris, completely upended the electoral landscape heading into November.
However, a survey by the Pew Research Center solely focused on Latinos and published on July 19, just two days before Biden announced his decision, does provide a snapshot of what the scenario looked like for the demographic.
The poll was conducted between July 1 and 7, after Biden's dismal debate performance on June 27 but before Donald Trump's attempted assassination on July 13.
Figures showed even levels of support for Trump and Biden, with both candidates being favored by 36% of respondents. What is notable is the level of support for independent candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. (RFK), which clocked in at 24%. The figure is much higher with the demographic than among U.S. voters overall (15%), the pollster explained.
People aged 18-49 showed increased support for RFK, with 27% choosing him over Trump and Biden, who got 35% and 32% of the responses, respectively. Those aged 50 and over were less favorable of the independent candidate: 18% chose him, while 42% favored Trump and 38% chose Biden.
Looking at education levels, college graduates tended to favor Biden, with almost half giving that answer (48%), compared to 34% for Trump and 16% for RFK. Figures were more evenly distributed among those with "some college education or less": 36% supported Trump, 33% Biden and 26% RFK.
Another salient finding is that neither Trump nor Biden had the confidence of most Latino voters on different issues. The only one where more than one in two people gave a positive answer concerned Trump making good decisions about economic policy (52%). In comparison, four in ten said the same about Biden.
"When it comes to making good decisions about abortion policy, 50% of Latino voters express confidence in Biden, while 45% have confidence in Trump. And on immigration, 39% have confidence in Biden, while 45% have confidence in Trump," the study showed.
Concerns about Biden's mental acuity to serve another term were the primary reason for his demise, something that was present in Pew's survey as well. Only one in four respondents agreed with that premise, the figure being 49% for Trump.
Moreover, "roughly half of Latino voters (55%) say "honest" describes Biden very or fairly well, while 30% say the same about Trump."
Biden's figures were low, and Kamala Harris will also have her work cut out to increase her support among members of the demographic.
According to a recently published poll by Way to Win, a progressive group that connects donors with campaigns, Harris has a strong support among her party, with almost 7 out of 10 respondents saying they'd support her if President Biden dropped out.
But among Latinos, the numbers are lower, with 52% of those surveyed asserting their support. It is worth clarifying that, at the moment, such scenario was hypothetical. They may very well fluctuate now that it has become a reality.
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