Ex GOP Strategist Explains Why California Latinos Are Shifting Toward Trump And The Republican Party

Over the past 30 years, California's Latino voters have undergone a dramatic shift, with a growing number now shifting their support toward the Republican Party, including President-elect Donald Trump. The change, driven by evolving economic concerns and generational differences, marks a stark departure from the unity seen in 1994 when Proposition 187 — a citizen-led initiative targeting undocumented immigrants — mobilized Latinos into a cohesive political force.

According to former GOP strategist Mike Madrid, the author of The Latino Century: How America's Largest Minority Is Changing Democracy (June 2024), the legacy of Proposition 187 is still felt today, but its influence is waning.

In an op-ed for the Los Angeles Times, he explained that at the time Latino voters united around the immigrant experience, opposing the proposition, which aimed to deny undocumented immigrants access to taxpayer-funded services. While the proposition was ruled unconstitutional, it solidified a political bond among Latinos and defined the group's relationship with immigration issues for decades.

However, Madrid pointed out, the political landscape has since shifted. A new generation of younger, U.S.-born Latino voters is emerging, one that is less focused on immigration and more concerned with economic populism.

A UC Berkeley poll found that 63% of California Latinos now view undocumented immigrants as a "burden," a view similar to that held by whites in the 1990s. This shift has been further confirmed by another recent poll, conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy and Telemundo a few weeks before the election, with 70% of Latino voters in California identifying illegal immigration as a serious issue.

The significance of Proposition 187 for Latino voters is gradually fading, Madrid explained. Nearly a third of eligible Latino voters are under 30, meaning they were not even born when Proposition 187 passed, or were too young to recall it clearly, according to the Pew Research Center.

This change in perspective is not just theoretical — it has real-world consequences, he said. The economic challenges facing California's Latino working class, from the state's housing crisis to soaring costs of living, have become their top concerns. According to Madrid's survey with David Binder Research, 90% of Latino respondents listed "the price we pay for everything" as their primary issue, far surpassing concerns about immigration or crime.

While Latinos in California have long advocated for policies that address their economic struggles, politicians have often been preoccupied with immigration, particularly the plight of the undocumented. This disconnect has led to growing frustration, with many Latinos feeling that their needs are being ignored.

Madrid says that California's Latino voters are now more likely to support Republicans, particularly as economic concerns take center stage. This shift aligns with a broader national trend, with Latino voters turning to the right in recent elections.

"We may be seeing the early signs that Latinos are moving from not voting because of their stagnant economic prospects to casting their ballots for Republicans instead of Democrats", Madrid wrote.

"We can and must protect and care about the state's undocumented people; that is a lesson we must never forget. But the ballots cast and the message sent by Latino voters themselves show they've had enough of policymakers whose preoccupation with the undocumented comes at the expense of working- and middle-class citizens", he concluded.