NBC News' last three national polls — all taken before last week's debate — show a significant 25-point swing toward Trump among voters who didn't participate in both 2020 and 2022, compared to those who cast ballots in both elections.
The findings continue a trend across public polling showing Trump with a sizable advantage among infrequent voters, with surveys from The New York Times and the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter also showing reflecting similar tendencies, something that could proof to be pivotal for the upcoming 2024 elections.
The most recent analysis took into account NBC News' polls in November 2023, January 2024 and April 2024, showing that, among those who voted in both the 2020 presidential election and the 2022 midterms, who represent 56% of all interviewed voters, Biden leads Trump by 5 percentage points, 49% to 44%.
However, Trump has a 12-point lead, 50% to 38%, among those who voted only in 2020, representing 17% of the interviews. The Republican candidate's numbers increase even more among those who did not vote in 2020 (16 points) and those who did not vote in both 2020 and 2022 (20 points).
"This suggests the election could hinge on Biden's frequent voters versus Trump's infrequent ones", concluded the poll.
Regardless of this trend, the challenge still remains: mobilizing these voters to actually vote. The same NBC News polling found that 73% of voters who participated in 2020 and 2022 rated their interest in the upcoming election as high, compared to only 44% of those who did not vote in 2020 and 37% who did not vote in both 2020 and 2022.
The profile of the non-2020 voters might have a lot to with how each camp chooses to approach them, as the poll shows the describe themselves as political moderates, tend to lack college degrees, and are more likely to be younger.
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