Democrats Shock Republicans, Flip Deep Red Iowa Senate Seat in Pro-Trump District

Democrats have pulled off a stunning upset in Iowa, flipping a deep-red state Senate seat in a district where Donald Trump won by 21 points in 2024.

The victory in Iowa Senate District 35 marks a significant shift in political momentum as Democrats appear to overperform in special elections ahead of the 2026 midterms, Balloon Juice reported.

The special election in Iowa Senate District 35 was triggered after the district's Republican state senator vacated the seat to become Iowa's lieutenant governor. The district, long considered a GOP stronghold, overwhelmingly backed Trump in the 2024 presidential election.

Given its deep-red lean, Republicans were widely expected to hold onto the seat without much difficulty. However, Democratic candidate Mike Zimmer capitalized on strong voter enthusiasm and a lower-than-expected Republican turnout.

Political experts point to a combination of energized Democratic turnout and a disengaged Republican base as key factors in the Iowa upset. Special elections often have lower turnout, and in this case, the enthusiasm gap appears to have benefited Democrats.

The Iowa flip serves as a warning sign for Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterms, particularly in the House of Representatives, where many GOP incumbents won their seats by narrow margins in 2024.

If Democrats continue to overperform in special elections, Republicans could find themselves in a precarious position as they seek to defend their House majority.