Democrats Don't Need to Get Tougher on Immigration to Win the Elections, Report Suggests

A study from The Immigration Lab at American University reveals that anti-immigrant rhetoric, once a powerful tool in U.S. elections, is losing its effectiveness in securing electoral wins. The research, which analyzed congressional and gubernatorial races from 2018 to 2022, found a 15% drop in the success of candidates running on hardline immigration platforms.

According to the study, anti-immigrant messages once associated with figures like Donald Trump are no longer a guaranteed path to victory. For example, Georgia Governor Brian Kemp's 2018 campaign heavily featured anti-immigrant themes, with ads highlighting his tough stance on immigration. However, in his 2022 re-election campaign, Kemp shifted focus away from immigration, emphasizing broader accomplishments like reducing government regulations. His more moderate approach led to a nearly threefold increase in his margin of victory.

The study revealed that nearly 60% of candidates who adopted anti-immigration stances were defeated in their races, while only 41% achieved victory. This trend may have a more pronounced impact on Republicans, as their candidates are more likely to vocalize opposition to immigration than their Democratic counterparts.

The data also suggests that voter attitudes on immigration have become more polarized by political ideology rather than reflecting a nationwide anti-immigrant shift. While a recent NBC poll showed that 89% of conservatives cite the U.S.-Mexico border as a major voting issue, only 25% of liberals and 52% of moderates feel the same. This divide indicates that while immigration remains a hot-button issue for Republicans, it may no longer resonate with the broader electorate in the same way.

Despite this trend, Trump has continued to energize his base by making increasingly extreme comments on immigration, even employing racial pseudoscience by asserting that recent migrants possess "bad genes". Meanwhile, for Kamala Harris, there has been a slight rightward shift in the Democratic stance on immigration since her 2019 campaign, during which she emphasized addressing the humanitarian needs of migrants. This change appears to be a response to the heightened visibility of border crossings following the pandemic.

As the U.S. approaches the 2024 elections, the study underscores the moral and electoral shortcomings of anti-immigrant messaging, pointing to the necessity for more thoughtful and pragmatic approaches to immigration issues.

In 2024, there was a notable 77% increase in anti-immigrant bills introduced across U.S. state legislatures, according to a report by the League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC). A total of 233 proposals were submitted, reflecting a staggering 357% rise since 2020.

The analysis examined legislation from 2020 to 2024, revealing that these proposals primarily aimed to bolster border security, enhance collaboration between state law enforcement and federal immigration authorities, and counter sanctuary policies. The surge in anti-immigrant proposals more than doubled from the previous legislative sessions, disproportionately affecting Latino communities, who represent about 66% of the estimated 11.2 million undocumented immigrants in the U.S.