Democrats' Chances of Taking Back Senate in 2026 Narrow Further After Minnesota Senator Decides Not to Run

Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith announced Thursday that she will not seek re-election in 2026, further thinning Democrats' chances to retake the Senate during the midterm elections. The decision also sparked speculation about potential candidates to compete for the seat.

Sen. Smith announced her decision in a post on X through a 2-minute video. She cited a desire to spend more time with her four grandchildren and her 94-year-old father. She also said her decision was "entirely personal" and unrelated to politics.

"I have decided not to run for re-election to the United States Senate in 2026," Smith said in the video. "After 20 years of hard and rewarding work in the public sector, I'm ready to spend more time with my family."

"We're more than ready to take up the mantle of this seat, and all that will have to get worked out," Smith told reporters at the Capitol on Thursday, adding that she wanted to announce her decision with enough time for others in the state to decide whether to run.

Smith, who previously served as Minnesota's lieutenant governor, was elevated to the Senate by Gov. Mark Dayton in 2018 after her predecessor, former Senator Al Franken, resigned over accusations of sexual harassment. She would later retain her seat in 2020, winning reelection by five points, and was considered a favorite to win once again had she ran in 2026 for a second full term.

Smith is now the second Democratic incumbent to announce they won't run in 2026. Sen. Gary Peters of Michigan announced the same decision in late January, saying that he's ready to start a "new chapter" and leave public office.

This will likely make it even more difficult for Democrats to gain back control of the Senate during the midterms. Republicans currently hold a 53-to-47 advantage in the Senate, and Democrats are considered to have little opportunity to gain seats beyond those held by Senator Susan Collins of Maine and Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina.

Nonetheless, Senator minority leader Chuck Schumer of New York remains optimistic of their chances in Minnesota, saying Thursday that he was "confident that we'll keep her seat blue."

Following her announcement, many names started floating around about who could possibly replace the experienced lawmaker. Most notably, Minnesota Governor and 2024 vice presidential hopeful Tim Walz was among several Democrats being considered for the role. In fact, he is reportedly considering running for the Senate seat, an aide said, though he is also weighing whether to seek a third term as governor next year.

Similarly, lieutenant governor Peggy Flanagan, who has had a strained relationship with Walz since the end of the presidential campaign, wrote on social media that her "intention is to run for U.S.-Senate."

Progressive Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) didn't rule out the possibility either, with a spokesperson saying "Congresswoman Omar will be talking with Minnesotans about the future of the Senate seat and DFL party in Minnesota."

Other names being thrown around include state attorney general Keith Ellison, Representatives Angie Craig and Kelly Morrison, former Representative Dean Phillips and Mayor Melvin Carter of St. Paul.