Democrat's chances of holding onto their most vulnerable Senate seat, that's also in Trump's crosshairs

As the Senate may be up for grabs come November, Democrats and Republicans alike are trying to hold on to as many seats in the chamber as possible. But in Montana, that may not necessarily be the outcome.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester is fighting to maintain his seat in the Senate in Republican-heavy Montana, currently facing Republican challenger Tim Sheehy. However, the race is currently tight and the results may not be what Tester expects, making him one of the most vulnerable Democrats this cycle.

A new poll from Emerson College/The Hill puts the Trump-backed Republican with a 2-point lead over Tester, 48% to 46%, with five percentage points remaining undecided. The survey was conducted from Aug. 5-6 with 1,000 likely voters in the state, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points.

The poll marks a shift from March, when the same group found Tester up by 2 points over his Republican challenger.

"The share of undecided voters has decreased from 14% to 5% as November draws closer, and Sheehy has benefitted with a six-point increase in support, while Tester's support has only increased by two points," Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball said in a statement.

Tester is widely regarded as the most vulnerable incumbent senator seeking reelection in November, as Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV) will not be running again. He is also one of the several incumbent Democrats seeking to keep their seats in a swing state or heavily Republican state.

Democrats currently hold a slim majority in the Senate, with a 51-49 majority, but Republicans are determined on flipping the chamber.

So much so, in fact, that former President and current GOP nominee Donald Trump is promoting the race, as he also tries to gather and maintain support for his own contest in November.

Trump will be making a stop in Montana on Friday for a campaign rally, where he is expected to urge voters the importance of holding the Senate in November. For Sheehy, his association with Trump might be one of his biggest pros, as he is running in a state that the former president won in 2020 by 16 percentage points, The Detroit News reports.

"There is a segment of the electorate that will turn out when Trump is on the ticket," University of Montana political analyst Rob Saldin said.

Trump's drive to endorse Sheehy may also be personal, as Tester played a role in 2018 as chairman of the Senate Committee on Veterans' Affairs, according to The Detroit News. Tester revealed past misconduct by Trump's personal physician, Ronny Jackson, that sank Jackson's nomination to lead the Department of Veterans Affairs.

The former president, however, is also facing criticism by some strategists by placing heavy focus on Montana and other states that already support him, given that it is a comfortable state for him to win. Facing new pressure in the race from a candidate with surging enthusiasm, Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump on Thursday called questions about his lack of swing state stops "stupid."

"I don't have to go there because I'm leading those states," Trump said. "I'm going because I want to help senators and congressmen get elected."