A Democratic-led poll showed Harris with a double-digit lead in Miami-Dade; a Republican one now reveals a tie

On August 8, a poll by Democratic strategist Christian Ulvert revealed that Kamala Harris, riding the wave of her freshly minted presidential campaign, has risen to a double digit lead over Republican candidate Donald Trump in Miami-Dade County, the state's largest block of nearly 1.5 million voters.

However, a new poll commissioned by Miami-Dade County Commissioner and Trump ally Kevin Cabrera indicates that former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are currently tied in the county, with each candidate receiving 47% of the support from likely voters, while only 6% remain undecided.

"Once a Democratic stronghold, Miami-Dade is no longer a guaranteed win as our community embraces conservative values and rejects the failed Biden-Harris policies ruining our nation," Cabrera told the Miami Herald. "The results show that President Trump's message resonates more powerfully than ever, and that he is poised to be elected as our 47th President."

The stark difference between the two polls is also noticeable in their methodology as the Ulvert poll included a larger sample size of 1,071 likely voters against the 500 likely general election voters consulted by the new one.

According to Cabrera's poll, both Trump and Harris enjoy strong support within their respective parties, with 90% of Republicans backing Trump and 90% of Democrats supporting Harris. However, Trump appears to have an edge among unaffiliated voters, 49% of whom indicated they would vote for Trump, compared to 41% who expressed support for Harris.

In terms of favorability, Cabrera's poll shows Harris slightly ahead, with 49% of likely voters holding a favorable view of her, compared to 45% who view her unfavorably. Trump's favorability rating stands at 48%, with 46% of respondents expressing an unfavorable opinion of the former president.

A memo accompanying the poll, also obtained by the Miami Herald, argued that these results align with recent electoral trends in Miami-Dade, where Democratic presidential candidates have seen their margins of victory narrow, pointing specifically to Florida Governor Ron DeSantis's success in winning the county during his 2022 reelection campaign, a feat not accomplished by a Republican presidential candidate since George H.W. Bush in 1988.

The poll also assessed the U.S. Senate race in Miami-Dade, showing Republican Senator Rick Scott with a slight lead over his Democratic challenger, former U.S. Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. According to the survey, Scott has the support of 47% of likely voters, while Mucarsel-Powell is backed by 46%.