Democrat Sherrod Brown's Chances of Keeping his Ohio Senate Seat With Less Than a Month Until the Elections

With Election Day officially less than a month away, campaigns up and down the ballot are embarking on their final sprint to make their cases to voters. In Ohio, Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown is hoping his experience in the state will be enough to make him a four-term Congressman as he continues to lead the polls.

Brown is currently facing a tight race with Republican businessman Bernie Moreno. The Democrat is among the most vulnerable Senate seats in the country— along with Montana's Jon Tester— and outside groups have already poured nearly $300 million into the Buckeye State, according to The Columbus Dispatch.

Ohio is often considered a swing state, although it has become a Republican stronghold in recent cycles, particularly after former President Donald Trump won in 2016 and 2020 by more than 8 percentage points. Republicans also hold the other U.S. Senate seat and all statewide executive offices, as well as majorities in both state legislative chambers and the U.S. representative delegation.

Vulnerable and often volatile Ohio politics have resulted in Senator Brown rarely wanting to talk about national politics, often claiming to reporters that he's not a pundit. In August, he toured the state as Democrats gathered in Chicago for their convention.

"I don't really look at politics left or right," Brown told reporters in Toledo the week of the convention. "I look at it as whose side you're on."

Brown has consistently performed well in polls during the 2024 cycle, despite his lead not necessarily being comfortable.

Decision Desk HQ and The Hill's polling average of 24 polls show Brown having a 2.2% lead on his challenger, standing at 47% to Brown's 44.8%. Those figures give Brown a 58% chance of winning his bid for a fourth term in Congress, despite the race still considered a "toss up."

Similarly, the Cook Political Report, one of the largest election forecasters in the country, also considered this election a "toss up" race, with no party having a clear advantage as to who may take the Senate seat. Nevertheless, the organization says Moreno hasn't done enough to persuade voters to oust Brown.

"If Moreno can get his name out there, emphasize that he's the Trump candidate, that might be enough," said Jessica Taylor, the Senate and governors editor for the Cook Political Report. "But this race is by no means over. I think that Sherrod Brown's still very much in this."

Despite polls, Brown still holds the advantages of incumbency: no primary, a substantial war chest and support from national Democrats who spend money to defend their own.

"I think he has run with the understanding that he doesn't need to dominate the headlines," University of Cincinnati political scientist David Niven said. "He's running from a place of being very well known and very well defined."

Money could also be a deciding factor in this race. As of July, the most recent campaign finance data available, Brown was outraising and outspending Moreno. Democratic and GOP groups had spent or reserved nearly $300 million in Ohio by Sept. 13, according to The Columbus Dispatch.

Democrats seem confident in their chances to maintain the seat. At an event back in August, Sen. Gary Peters of Michigan said Brown will win his bid in November.

"I don't know if any Democrat can win Ohio, unless their name is Sherrod Brown," Peters said. "Which is why I say, in this election, in this election, I have really good news for folks: I got a guy named Sherrod Brown who's running in Ohio."