Democrat Elisa Slotkin's Chances of Winning Michigan's Senate Seat Entering the Final Month of the Campaign

Democratic Michigan Rep. Elisa Slotkin is currently polling ahead in the state's Senate race against Republican Mike Rogers, although the margins have varied widely over the past weeks.

The latest survey, conducted by Mitchell Research & Communications, as well as Michigan Information & Research Service and Michigan News Source, has Slotkin ahead by five percentage points, 49% to 44%.

Most other surveys have Slotkin leading by mid-single digits, with outliers moving toward both directions. A mid-September poll by Morning Consult among 1,297 likely voters showed the Democrat with 51% of the support, compared to Rogers' 37%. Another one by the University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov features a 13-point lead for the Democrat.

In contrast, one by Suffolk University and USA Today among 500 likely voters showed Rogers trailing by two percentage points, with 43% to Slotkin's 45%. And one by AtlasIntel even showed him ahead by five percentage points, 49% to 44%. Overall, Real Clear Politics' average has her up by five percentage points, 48% to 43%. But the Cook Political Report labels the race as a "toss up."

Slotkin has raised $18 million in the past quarter, her campaign said this week, taking the total amount to $42 million. She has raised more money than any Senate candidate in state history, her campaign said.

It also took a jab at the Rogers campaign with a reference to a recent announcement that the Senate Leadership Fund, aligned with Minority Leader Mitch McConelly, will spend over $22 million on advertising for the Republican.

"The contrast couldn't be more clear: Elissa's support is coming from hardworking Michiganders across the state,while Mike Rogers continues to depend on billionaires and super PACs to prop up his entire campaign," Slotkin spokesman Austin Cook said.

Slotkin, however, is not being optimistic at the national level. She warned donors this week that her internal polling shows Vice President Kamala Harris "underwater" in the state. "I'm not feeling my best right now about where we are on Kamala Harris in a place like Michigan," she said during a virtual fundraiser.