Despite facing hurdles for years in Texas, Democrats are seemingly gaining electoral momentum, particularly as the Senate race between incumbent GOP Sen. Ted Cruz and Democratic challenger Rep. Colin Allred heats up with less than two months to go to the November election.
New polling suggests Democrats are facing competitive races in Texas, not only at the Senate level, but also in the presidential race.
A recently published study by Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) illustrates this, as it shows Allred tightening the gap with Cruz. The poll surveyed 800 registered voters in Texas from August 24 through August 29. It was conducted via English and Spanish interviews and it has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
TPOR found that in the Senate race, Cruz leads Allred by 47% to 43%— a slightly tighter race than the state's baseline partisanship. This could be due to the fact that Allred is a less known candidate, while Cruz can be a controversial figure to more moderate or disaffected Republicans due to his close knit relationship with former President Donald Trump.
When it comes to ideology, Allred and Cruz are both almost equally distant from the average Texas voter. In an ideology scale, where 0 represented the most conservative and 10 the most liberal, the average voter scored at 4.3, placing the electorate slightly right-of-center. Allred is rated at 6.8, which is 2.5 points more liberal than the average voter, and Cruz at 1.6— 2.7 points more conservative of the electorate.
The Democratic challenger is also the most popular politician surveyed (+14 net favorable), though he is also the least known, with 44% of voters having no opinion of him or not recognizing his name. In contrast, the incumbent Senator is much more familiar to voters, with only 4% of voters having no opinion, but less popular at -8 net favorability rates.
The contest between Cruz and Allred emerged as one of a small handful of unexpectedly competitive in the high-stakes fight for the Senate this fall. Allred's entry to the race last year shifted Cook Political Report's rating of the Senate seat from "solid" Republican to "likely" Republican.
Cruz fended off a strong Democratic challenge six years ago, when Beto O'Rourke came within 3 percentage points of flipping the seat. O'Rourke's bid benefited from the broader "blue wave" in the midterm election that year, and some in the state are skeptical that Allted can snag the energy he needs to finish the job this cycle, according to The Hill.
But several recent polls show Cruz struggling to cross the 50-percentage mark, making the Texas Senate race a potential bright spot for Democrats as they battle to hold their slim majority in the upper chamber.
"If you're Ted Cruz or a Ted Cruz fan, if in the closing months of an election, you're not at 50 percent and you're not closing that margin up towards 50 percent, that's going to be problematic," pollster Brett Lloyd said, arguing about the possibility of Allred scoring an upset in the Senate race.
In the presidential race, Vice President Harris is also seemingly gaining ground. TPOR showed the Democrat trailing behind Trump at 43% to his 51%. Other polling suggests that gap may be smaller. For instance, a new Emerson survey found Trump leading Harris in the state by just 4 points, at 50% to her 46%.
Enthusiasm over Harris could ultimately help Allred's bid, even if it means she doesn't win the state.
"That doesn't mean that [Harris] will carry Texas... but she is liked by our base voters, and will help turnout, for not just Colin Allred, but for every Democrat who's running in a competitive environment in Texas," said Matt Angle, founder and director of the Lone Star Project, a Democratic PAC in the state.
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