Cumulative Inflation In Argentina Likely To Climb Above 300 Percent By End Of Year

Inflation in Argentina is a tough challenge for President Alberto Fernández’s government.

The country once had the strongest economy in Latin America. With a good amount of natural resources and an educated population, it still has the elements to be highly successful, according to Panoramas. So, it must be willing to plan economic transformations and cut spending.

As the country faces economic deficiency, poverty and the pandemic, Fernández will be obligated to go through a huge reform. Peronist policies have shown to have a direct impact on Argentina's economy. And the country will not be able to overcome its difficulties in the near future without a long-term plan.

As of now, the country is facing some of the world’s highest inflation. Rates have topped 70%, according to The Washington Post. Argentina has almost no access to international capital. It owes over $40 billion to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The economic crisis started in 2018 and it’s still far from fully recovered.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed down at the margin to 6.2% in September. Since December 2019, cumulative inflation reached 254%, but that figure will not take long to spiral, The Rio Times reported. Private economists expect the rise in prices to remain above 6% per month in the last quarter of 2022, according to Relevamiento de Expectativas del Mercado (REM) published by the Central Bank (BCRA). If that happens then the current government’s cumulative inflation will go above 300% by the end of the year. This way, the accumulated price increase will already be higher than that recorded between 2015 and 2019.

EcoGo expects the price increase for October to be 6.6%. Given this scenario, Sebastián Menescaldi, director of EcoGo discounts said that with this month’s inflation, the 296.8% left by Argentina's former President Mauricio Macri will already be surpassed.

Research firm Empiria also foresees that the current administration’s accumulated inflation will exceed the inflation that was recorded by Macri this year, but according to its calculations, that would happen in December. Economist Guadalupe Birón said taking into account that the inflation accumulated by the former President during his term was "293%, based on our estimates, that number would be surpassed in the current administration in December with an accumulated inflation of 311%."