COP16: Can Colombia Lead The Global Fight Against Climate Change?

As international delegates convene in Cali, Colombia for the United Nations COP16 biodiversity conference, the host is dominating the limelight.

The Colombian government views the conference as an opportunity to prove itself as a leader in the global movement to combat climate change, biodiversity loss, and other man-made ecological woes.

Speaking to The Latin Times, a representative of the country's Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development said: "without a doubt, [COP16] is an opportunity that will allow us to continue positioning ourselves as leaders of climate action on the global stage."

However, despite many achievements in his first two years in office, President Gustavo Petro's government still faces a number of obstacles before being able to say it made strides to fulfill one of his key campaign goals.

What has Colombia's government achieved on climate?

Since coming to power in 2022, Petro, Colombia's first leftist president, has put climate change at the forefront of his agenda, notably announcing an end to new oil and gas exploration in the country in January 2023.

Petro also made headlines during the 2023 COP28 summit in Dubai – the sister conference to the biodiversity COP being held now in Colombia – for being the first leader of a "major nation" to call for a treaty to end the use of fossil fuels.

More recently, the government detailed a $40 billion plan to transition the oil and coal-producing country away from fossil fuels. It also oversaw a one-third reduction in deforestation nationwide between 2022 and 2023.

Speaking to The Latin Times, Estefanía Gonzalez, Deputy Campaign Director of Greenpeace Andino, praised Colombia for its climate leadership alongside other Latin American nations.

"[They have] shown important leadership at both regional and global levels in various multilateral arenas ... [including] being vocal during climate change negotiations, [and] pushing for agreements that entail phasing out fossil fuels," she said.

But Gonzalez also acknowledged obstacles to Latin American leadership on the issue.

"The main challenges lie in the urgent need for countries in the region to also implement local measures to protect key ecosystems, such as the Amazon in Brazil, Colombia, Peru, and Ecuador," she explained.

Despite progress on many environmental fronts, Colombia's government is faced with an increasingly complex scenario combining national security and conservation that has limited the implementation of environmental protection measures in the Amazon.

Colombia's obstacles to conservation

According to a recent report by the International Crisis Group, a break-down in peace negotiations between the Central General Staff (Estado Mayor Central or EMC) rebels and the Colombian state has exacerbated deforestation this year.

The guerrilla group, which controls large swaths of the Amazon, imposed limits on logging and land clearances as a gesture of goodwill when negotiations began in late 2022, contributing to the significant decline in deforestation in recent years.

An internal split in the EMC in April this year led to a collapse in talks, with a minority of the group now engaged in negotiations with the state. Since then, there has been a sharp rise in deforestation rates in Colombia.

According to Andrés Cajiao, an investigator for the Ideas for Peace Foundation (Fundación Ideas para la Paz or FIP), a Colombian think tank, the EMC is using the environment as a bargaining chip in talks with the state.

"The environment is an important topic in negotiations between the state and the [EMC], which has in turn made it a means of pressure and negotiation for the dissident faction," he told The Latin Times.

As Colombia enters its traditional tree-cutting season, deforestation is expected to rise further.

Speaking to The Latin Times, International Crisis Group Senior Analyst on Colombia, Elizabeth Dickinson, explained that conservation efforts in the Amazon now depend on peace negotiations.

"For now, given that we have an urgent environmental situation, I do think that connecting this issue with peace talks is practically not only the best, but the only way forward," she said.

Dickinson clarified that in the medium and long term, it is "fundamental" that the Petro administration takes back control of the Amazon, but said "there is no short term way for the state to recover control of these areas."

As long as it lacks control over the Amazon, the state's only method of protecting one of Earth's most vital ecosystems is through peace negotiations with the rebels.

According to Dickinson, the Petro administration's conservation strategy is intertwined with its drive for peace with rebel groups.

"I think this government has made it very clear that they want to connect their two agendas of peace and negotiations with environmental protection ... we understand that there are conversations ongoing about precisely this issue," she commented.

Cajiao echoes Dickinson's view that the best bet to reduce deforestation is through negotiations with the EMC.

But the analyst also noted that these talks only target a portion of the area affected by deforestation. Other zones are controlled by different rebel groups, further complicating conservation efforts by the state.

Can Colombia be a global climate leader?

Despite obstacles to implementing national-level conservation measures, Colombia is still determined to spearhead global climate action as it hosts COP16.

As other countries stall in their commitments, Colombia's government appears determined to drive forward environmental efforts.

Gonzalez, from Greenpeace's Andes region, said she expects Colombia to lead by example at this year's biodiversity conference.

"We expect Colombia to take leadership at COP16, setting an example and driving ambition in terms of biodiversity for the implementation of the Global Biodiversity Framework," she said, referring to the conservation targets agreed to at the previous biodiversity summit in 2022.

Countries were expected to submit national plans to meet these commitments before the conference, but out of 195 countries attending the conference, only 25 met the deadline. Colombia also failed to meet the deadline but said it would present its plan during the meeting.

As Dickinson notes, there is no easy fix to the global environmental crisis.

"I think there has to be a sort of global understanding that these are not easy problems and we have to sometimes look at solutions that are not ideal, but we can't let the perfect be the enemy of the good in that regard," she said.

Despite the complexity of the struggle to protect the Amazon, Colombia has nevertheless proven itself to be one of the most progressive countries both symbolically and practically in advancing conservation and anti-climate change action.

COP16 will be a test of whether or not it can lead other countries to follow suit.