Cartels Could Start Targeting Americans Over Terrorism Designation, Expert Warns

A security expert is warning that the recent designation of cartels as terrorist organizations by the Donald Trump administration could back these criminal organizations against a corner, leading them to target American citizens in some of the countries in which they operate.

Speaking to Border Report, Michael Ballard, director of Intelligence for Global Guardian LLC, said cartels could resort to "targeting American businesspeople or travelers in a way they were previously afraid to do." "If your assets, your operations get disrupted, you may feel like, 'What do I have to lose? The attention of U.S. is already here. We are already public enemy No. 1.'"

Ballard clarified that he has not seen any indications of this shift taking place, but the company he leads is urging travelers to monitor the situation, especially in Mexico. "Be cautious, keep track of what is going on, especially if you're traveling to cartel heavy areas. Mexico City has its share of crime but no cartels controlling street violence or trafficking. But Guadalajara sits in the CJNG area of influence. If you go there, consider extra security," he said.

The expert went on to say his "worst-case scenario" for the development is the groups "morph into an insurgency like FARC and ELN in Colombia."

"Those groups started as insurgencies, as guerilla groups and used drugs to fund their militancy. You could see the same but in reverse with drug trafficking groups turn into militant groups," he added.

Six major Mexican cartels are among the eight transnational criminal groups designated as foreign terrorist organizations. Other experts consulted by InSight Crime believe the measure is misleading and may actually complicate binational efforts to combat the criminal groups.

Stephanie Brewer, director for Mexico at the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA), suggested that the "starting point" to combat these criminal networks would be to address them "for what they are."

While cartels are powerful, they do not pursue "the type of political ends that a terrorist organization pursues," Brewer said, emphasizing that their use of violence is primarily driven by economic motives rather than ideological agendas.

The international policy expert noted that the designation grants U.S. authorities access to additional tools, such as stiffer penalties and electronic surveillance. However, she emphasized that similar options were already available and cautioned against potential unintended consequences.

Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, expert on organized crime, told the news outlet the designation "fundamentally misunderstands" how these criminal operations work.

"These networks have people in the United States that form part of very large supply chains that make such criminal operations possible," she told InSight Crime. "The designation makes it seem like the threat is coming exclusively from the outside, but that is not compatible with reality and how these criminal activities happen."