Can Marco Rubio Win The Latino Vote?

Could Marco Rubio capture the Hispanic vote in 2016? That’s the question facing Republican donors and primary voters as the GOP decides which candidate will run their race to the White House. Having captured 55 percent of the Hispanic vote in his 2010 Florida Senate campaign, Rubio is giving Republicans hope. Mitt Romney’s inability to capture the Hispanic vote was a major factor in his 2012 defeat, in which over 70 percent of Latinos voted to reelect Barack Obama.

Yet Rubio, who is Cuban-American, might find it difficult to repeat his Floridian success on a national stage. That’s because Florida’s Hispanic community is significantly more Cuban-American, as well as GOP-leaning, than any other state in the nation. His supporters are hopeful, however.

"A Republican nominee is going to need to be somewhere in the mid-forties, or better, among Hispanic voters," said Whit Ayres, an established Republican pollster who will likely work on Rubio’s campaign. Ayres, who made his comments this week at a Christian Science Monitor lunch, added that Rubio was "extraordinarily talented" and could be "transformational" in expanding the GOP's appeal.

Democrats fired back today, saying that winning more than forty percent of the Latino vote would be a “tall order,” and calling Rubio’s policies “damaging to Latinos and the middle class.” They cited Rubio’s opposition to Obamacare and other Democrats legislation, as well as immigration policy in general.

“Marco Rubio ran away from his own immigration reform package, bowing to political pressure. He said ‘…calls to grant amnesty to twelve million people are unrealistic and quite frankly irresponsible,’” the Democratic National Committee said, in the email.

For now, Rubio’s main competition for the Latino vote is Ted Cruz, another Cuban-American Senator bidding for the the Republican Presidential nomination. Even though it wont’ help him much in the primary race directly, Rubio presents clear advantages over Cruz for a national race. Unlike Cruz, Rubio speaks Spanish well, and has at least tried to pass comprehensive immigration reform. Ayers and other Rubio staffers might have a chance at convincing Republican primary voters and big GOP donors -- the vast majority of whom are white -- that their team could take them all the way.