California's 41st Congressional District race could determine control of the House: What you need to know

As the November elections quickly approach, analysts' are particularly focusing to six bellwether House races in California, which many believe could determine who controls that chamber of Congress.

One of those races is located in the Inland Empire, a metropolitan area and region inland of and adjacent to coastal Southern California. The race for the state's 41st Congressional District in Riverside County, which was re-drawn in 2021, is expected to be extremely close.

The redistricting in 2021 changed the landscape of voters in the Inland Empire. The territory now stretches from Corona down to Lake Elsinore and all the way to include Palm Springs and La Quinta.

In that district, Republican Rep. Ken Calvert will be challenged by Democrat Will Rollins. It will be a rematch from their 2022 contest, which Calvert won by 11,100 votes, according to Ballotpedia.

Calvert was first elected to the U.S. House in 1992, and has represented various districts due to redistricting. He was first elected to California's 41st Congressional District in 2022. He used to be a small business owner, and is running on his political experience, highlighting his membership on the House Committee of Appropriations and his role as chair of the Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense.

Rollins, on the other hand, is an attorney who previously worked as a federal prosecutor and an assistant U.S. Attorney. He is running on his experience as a terrorism prosecutor, saying he has "been on the front lines in the fight against extremism." he has also highlighted his law enforcement background, saying he supports funding law enforcement and enacting gun safety laws to promote public safety.

Calvert and Rollins advanced to the general elections in March under California's top-two system, which moves the top two vote-getters forward. In that round of voting, Calvert received over 85,000 votes, or 53% of support, while Rollins took the second place at over 62,000 votes, which was 38% of the ballots, and with the Democratic combined vote being 47%, bringing the partisan split to six percentage points.

When the two candidates faced each other in 2022, Calvert defeated Rollins by around five percentage points, at 52.3% to 47.7%. Now, ahead of November, it seems this rematch will be much closer than the first round.

As of early-July, four major election forecasters differed in their ratings for this contest, with predictions varying from "Toss-Up" to "Likely Republican."

"Both sides say this year's race will likely be dominated by kitchen-table issues including the daily cost of living, crime and housing," according to the Los Angeles Times. Similarly, Politico reported that "tough-on-crime policies have emerged as a central issue in the race."

All 435 U.S. House seats are up for election in 2024, and Republicans have a 220 to 213 majority with two vacancies. That is why these races in California are critical and being closely watched.

Thomas Holyoke, a political science professor at California State University, Fresno, tells Axios that turnout in the races, especially among Latinos, will be crucial. He says Vice President Kamala Harris, a former California attorney general, could give Democrats in close House races a minimal but decisive jolt after entering the presidential race.