Biden Continues to Trail Trump in Most Battleground States, Including Latino-Heavy Arizona, Nevada

Former President Donald Trump continues to lead incumbent Joe Biden in most of the battleground states that could decide the 2024 elections in November, a new poll by the Wall Street Journal shows.

Biden stands behind his Republican counterpart in both scenarios laid out by the survey: a head-to-head matchup and a three-way race that includes independent candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.).

Looking at the first scenario, figures show Trump with leads ranging between one and six percentage points. The largest one is in North Carolina, followed by Latino-heavy Arizona (5 percentage points). Nevada comes in third with a four-point difference, Nevada follows suit along with Pennsylvania (3 points), while Georgia shows a one-point difference.

It's worth pointing out that the poll's margin of error is +/–4 percentage points, meaning that most states are within this range, Arizona and North Carolina showing a difference clear enough to conclude Trump has a solid lead.

The only state where the presumptive Republican nominee doesn't have a lead is Wisconsin. Poll results showed a tie in the head-to-head matchup and Biden with a three-point lead when RFK was thrown in the mix.

"Overall, the poll shows substantial unhappiness with Biden among voters who will have the most influence in the outcome of the election, as expanded one-party dominance in states has left just a few as politically competitive," argues the WSJ when presenting the poll's results.

Biden managed to win Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in 2020, bucking a trend that had been negative for Democrats. He also took Georgia and Arizona by slim margins, as well as Nevada by a larger one.

Most of them show a challenging scenario for the incumbent seven months away from the elections, as most voters surveyed have a negative view of his job performance. They "outweigh positive views by 16 percentage points or more, with the gap topping 20 points in four states."

"By contrast, Trump earns an unfavorable job review for his time in the White House in only a single state—Arizona—where negative marks outweigh positive ones by 1 percentage point," the survey adds.

However, discontent is generalized and affects Trump as well. A Gallup poll from Wednesday shows that "roughly three in 10 Americans each believe only Donald Trump (35%), only Joe Biden (30%) or neither of the major party candidates (29%) would perform well."

"At the same time, a 42% plurality of independents, the largest political bloc in the U.S., do not think either candidate would be a good president, and about one-quarter each think only Trump or Biden would," the study added.

However, not all have been bad news for Biden on this front. A Bloomberg and Morning Consult from last week showed he sharply reduced Donald Trump's lead in some battleground states and even overtook him in another.

Concretely, Biden reduced Trump's lead in all states from five to four percentage points. The movements were much sharper in some of them, one being Latino-heavy Nevada. There, the President went from trailing his opponents by six percentage points to two, well within its margin of error.

Pennsylvania and Michigan were other states where Biden made significant gains, according to this poll. They now show him tied with Trump after being down six and two percentage points, respectively.

Biden was also shown ahead in Wisconsin after losing by four percentage points last month. Even though he does so by one percentage point, within the state's margin of error (four points), it illustrates the sharp uptick.