Are Mexican Cartels Behind Violence in Colombia's Conflict Zone?

Colombian President Gustavo Petro has repeatedly claimed that Mexican cartels are responsible for the recent escalation of violence in the country's internal armed conflict.

The head of State recently visited the northeastern Catatumbo region, where fighting between the National Liberation Army (ELN) and dissidents of the FARC rebel group has affected 92,000 people.

In a speech on March 6, Petro said that "the Mexican cartels are the ones giving instructions in Catatumbo." Days later he blamed recent violence in the western Cauca department on "foreign mafioso cartels."

The president also claimed in February that "the Sinaloa Cartel is the current boss of the ELN."

In this context, The Latin Times spoke to experts on the relations between Mexican and Colombian criminal networks to verify whether Petro's allegations have basis.

What role do Mexican cartels play in Colombia?

The presence of Mexican drug trafficking organizations in Colombia has been confirmed for well over a decade.

Following crackdowns on organized crime groups like Pablo Escobar's Medellin Cartel in the 1990s, Colombia's role in the global drug trade shifted dramatically.

"There is no criminal group today in Colombia that has the capability to regularly deliver drugs directly to market in Europe or the United States," explained Elizabeth Dickinson, Senior Colombia Analyst at Crisis Group.

Colombian drug trafficking groups currently focus on cultivating coca leaf and converting it into cocaine. Mexican groups are then responsible for transporting the finished product to market.

"The role of the Mexican groups [in Colombia] is largely a client relationship," explained Dickinson.

Cartels arrange to buy cocaine from Colombian groups at a specific purity, time and price point, then transport it to the United States or Europe.

Henry Shuldiner, a researcher at InSight Crime, a think tank that investigates organized crime in the Americas, corroborated Dickinson's view: "one is a buyer, one is a supplier, and that is the extent of their relationship."

He explained that, instead of having a permanent presence in Colombia, Mexican cartels send emissaries to purchase cocaine.

"These emissaries are principally how Mexican cartels have conducted business and continue to conduct business, as opposed to actually having foot soldiers on the ground looking to dominate territory," said Shuldiner.

Dickinson also noted that envoys tend to be Colombians who work for a Mexican cartel. They travel to Colombia to deal with purchases and build a business relationship with specific groups.

Petro's suggestion that Mexican cartels are giving instructions to Colombian armed groups, then, appears to be untrue.

"I would not classify it as being the boss or one is, you know, on top of the other in their hierarchy," said Shuldiner.

Incentives for violence

While Petro's comments may have been exaggerated, the analysts do suggest that Mexican cartels play a role in Colombia's conflict, albeit indirectly.

Dickinson explained that while Mexican groups do not have a physical presence in Colombia and do not control the fighting, their involvement does fuel the conflict.

"There are commercial incentives and very real incentives... to comply with a commercial agreement, a criminal agreement that they've made to deliver drugs and that is obviously a disincentive for them to leave these economies behind," said the analyst.

According to Dickinson, while Mexican cartels may not give orders to armed groups, they create a financial incentive for groups to keep control of coca-growing areas and trafficking routes, which stokes violence.

Schuldiner explains another element of the equation related to supplying the arms to groups in Colombia.

"There is, I think, pretty clearly a relationship that involves arms trafficking and arms smuggling for drugs that has been shown throughout police reports [and] seizures of different arms that have been smuggled into Colombia," said the researcher.

These transactions highlight another indirect way that Mexican cartels enable violence by supplying arms to Colombian groups in return for drugs.

Are Mexican cartels to blame for the violence in Colombia?

While the conflict in Colombia is incentivized by the drug trade, which involves Mexican cartels, Shuldiner nevertheless criticized Petro's suggestion that Mexicans are to blame for the violence in Colombia.

"Petro's claim that foreign cartels, specifically Mexican ones, are behind violence is obviously a bit preposterous in taking away from the autonomy and strength of Colombia's own criminal groups," said the researcher.

While the groups may leverage their business relationship with Mexican cartels to strengthen their position in the armed conflict, the violence cannot be blamed on foreign organizations.

Nevertheless, it is clear that there are intimate ties between Mexican and Colombian criminal groups and that these relationships are not going away any time soon.

"They have been doing good business with one another, and are going to be happy to continue to do so without stepping on each other's toes," explained Shuldiner.