Are Immigrants Causing a Housing Shortage Like JD Vance Says? Here's What Economists Say

Ohio Sen. and Vice Presidential hopeful JD Vance claimed during Tuesday's vice-presidential debates that the U.S. is in the midst of a housing crisis primarily due to an increase in illegal immigration over the past few years. But is this entirely accurate? Economists say no.

Housing is one of many issues Vance, along with his running mate former President Donald Trump, believe are rooted in the arrival of undocumented migrants to the U.S. Along with zoning reform, the members of the GOP ticket have premised much of their policy on an unprecedented mass-deportation plan that they argue would reduce competition for housing.

"Look, in Springfield, Ohio, and in communities all across this country, you've got schools that are overwhelmed, you've got hospitals that are overwhelmed, you have go housing that is totally unaffordable because we brought in millions of illegal immigrants to compete with Americans for scarce homes," Vance said during the debate, according to a CBS News transcript.

While it is true that the country is facing a housing crisis, one in which prices have soared for years and become unaffordable for consumers, Vance's link to immigration has been debunked by economists and housing experts. They say that while immigration may be helping keep rents high in some areas, other forces are the main culprits for this trend, according to The Washington Post.

"I don't think [new immigrants] are demanding the same type of dwellings that are pulling up prices," said Dany Bahar, an economist at Brown University and nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. "These people are not competing for the same households as middle-class Americans."

Immigrants have historically coalesced in depopulated or underused towns or neighborhoods without directly competing with native-born residents, said Sharon Cornelissen, director of housing for the Consumer Federation of America, which advocated for equitable housing policies. She cited immigrant inflows that helped revitalize New York City and Los Angeles in the 1970s and the 1980s as they were dealing with the aftermath of white flight.

In Springfield, Ohio, which Vance has not been shy of highlighting, housing problems predate the immigration surge, City Manager Bryan Heck said in a letter to Vance and Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown this summer. But he did acknowledge the migrants have played a part in complicating the situation.

"Most recently, Springfield has seen a surge in population through immigration that has significantly impacted our ability as a community to produce enough housing opportunities for all," Heck wrote, estimating the city's Haitian population had increased to 15,000 to 20,000 over the last four years in a community of just under 60,000 residents.

Heck has asked for more aid from Washington, asserting that while 2,000 housing units may come over the next three to five years, that is not enough, NBC News reports.

"Without further support at the Federal level, communities like Springfield are set up to fail in being able to meet the housing needs of its residents," he wrote.

While a rise immigration can put pressure on the rental market, it is not clear how much.

Rent costs shot up in 2021 and 2022 on the heels of the pandemic, as people reconsidered where they wanted to live and suddenly competed for the same units. But new leases have since stabilized considerably, and rates are even falling in some cities. On average, apartments are slightly cheaper today than they were one year ago, The Washington Post reports.

Experts broadly agree that the U.S. needs more housing. Vice President Kamala Harris says she wants to help build 3 million new homes, give state and local governments incentives to invest in housing and give a $25,000 assistance plan to hold first-time buyers. But those plans may also juice demand and drive prices up.