Analysts Praise Mexico's Role as 'A Buffer Between the U.S. And Central America,' but Warn About the Long Term

Mexico has intercepted nearly 1 million migrants so far in 2024, reflecting its increasingly pivotal role in managing migration flows to the United States. In fact, in the last few weeks Mexican authorities have dismantled at least two migrant caravans of more than 1,500 people each, with some migrants being bused to cities in southern Mexico, and others offered transit papers.

Data from Mexico's Interior Ministry shows 925,000 encounters with individuals without visas or migration permits between January and August 2024, more than double the total for 2023. Experts have highlighted the country's actions as a critical buffer between the U.S. and Central America, though questions remain about the long-term sustainability of these measures, as a new piece by Axios reveals.

Mexico's heightened role is largely due to agreements with the U.S. and expanded enforcement policies. The deployment of the National Guard, created in 2019 and operating under military control, has bolstered patrols at the southern border with Guatemala for example.

Migrants are often intercepted and redirected to southern shelters or processing stations in a strategy described by migration experts as creating additional logistical and financial hurdles for those seeking to reach the U.S. "Mexico has become essentially the waiting room for migrants originally headed to the U.S.," said Luciana Gandini, a migration researcher at Mexico's National Autonomous University (UNAM).

While the measures have been effective in reducing migrant flows to the U.S., analysts question their viability as a lasting solution. Increased enforcement does little to address the conditions driving migration, such as economic crises, political repression, and violence in countries like Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba.

Additionally, the diversity of intercepted migrants underscores the global dimension of the issue. Mexico has encountered individuals from regions as far away as Africa and South Asia. Despite knowing the risks, many migrants remain determined to undertake the journey, driven by dire circumstances in their home countries.

"Mexico has been very active and served as a buffer between the United States and at least Central America — but, really, almost between the United States and the rest of the world," said Carin Zissis, editor-in-chief of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas Online.

Experts warn that potential policies, such as large-scale deportations, could place further strain on Mexico's migration infrastructure. Overwhelmed shelters and limited resources could exacerbate an already challenging situation, particularly if the number of returnees from the U.S. increases significantly.