Americans' Economic Outlook Worsens Ahead of 2024 Election

A majority of Americans feel worse off today than they did four years ago, according to a recent Gallup poll. The survey, conducted between September 16 and 28, reveals that 52% of Americans believe their families are in a worse position, while 39% say they are better off, and 9% report no change. This sentiment aligns with past election years, particularly 1992, when similar economic concerns were voiced.

Partisan views significantly influence these perceptions. The poll shows that 72% of Democrats feel better off compared to only 35% of independents and 7% of Republicans. This divide is reflected in Gallup's Economic Confidence Index (ECI), which currently sits at -26, a figure that has remained negative over the past four years. Economic confidence took a hit in 2022, as inflation soared to levels not seen in decades. Inflation has consistently ranked as the top financial concern for Americans over the past three years.

Gallup's ECI measures how Americans feel about the economy now and in the future. It ranges from +100, when everyone rates conditions as excellent or improving, to -100, when all view the economy as poor and getting worse. Since 1992, the ECI hit its peak at +56 in January 2000 and its lowest point at -72 in October 2008.

Despite generally low unemployment and steady economic growth, 46% of respondents describe current economic conditions as "poor," while 29% see them as "only fair." Meanwhile, 62% of Americans believe the economy is getting worse, a sentiment that has remained unchanged since August.

Economic concerns are not only shaping personal perceptions but also dominating public discourse. A combined 43% of respondents name economic issues as the most important problem facing the country, a figure that has remained steady since September. Inflation and the broader economy are frequently cited alongside immigration and dissatisfaction with government.

Job market perceptions are also less optimistic. Only 44% of Americans say it's a good time to find a quality job, a slight decline from previous readings. September's unemployment rate stands at 4.1%, a figure that remains below the historical average but is higher than the record lows seen earlier in 2023.

As the 2024 presidential election nears, economic concerns remain at the forefront for many Americans, with inflation being a key issue. A poll conducted by the Hispanic Federation and Latino Victory Project between October 2 and 10 found that 60% of respondents identified the cost of living and inflation as their top concerns. Jobs and the broader economy were important to 38%, while housing affordability was cited by 32%. Social issues, including abortion rights (24%) and gun violence (20%), were also significant, along with immigration and U.S.-Mexico border concerns (17%).