Allies to Adversaries? How The U.S.-Colombia Relations Could Devolve Under Trump and Petro

Colombia made global headlines on Sunday following a dispute between its president, Gustavo Petro, and his American counterpart Donald Trump.

The spat saw the White House announce sweeping sanctions and threaten 50% tariffs after Bogotá rejected two U.S. deportation flights carrying its citizens. And while Petro ultimately folded under the pressure, analysts worry that the high-profile dispute may foreshadow turbulent relations between two ideological foes with a similar populist penchant.

Miscalculation and overreaction: the deportation dispute

Although Trump has made deporting undocumented immigrants a priority, deportations are not a new policy in Washington. Between 2020 and 2024 Colombia accepted 475 flights carrying deported citizens from the U.S., with 124 planes arriving in 2024 alone.

According to Sergio Guzmán, Director of Colombia Risk Analysis, a political risk consultancy, Petro's rejection of the U.S. deportation flights last week was unusual.

"Petro changing his view on the deportation flight is strange, especially because he first tweeted that he wanted to receive immigrants with open arms and with flowers at the airport," Guzmán told The Latin Times.

But the move was not without precedent, as Petro had rejected a flight carrying 200 Colombian deportees in May 2023, citing inhumane conditions.

Guzmán suggested that the Colombian president's intervention was most likely a miscalculation. "I don't think Petro was expecting Trump to be so drastic and disproportionate with his response," he explained.

Trump announced the imposition of 25% tariffs on all Colombian imports to the U.S., the revocation of visas from government officials and supporters, and financial sanctions, among other measures.

It soon became clear that Colombia was in the unenviable position of being made an example of by the new administration. After Colombia capitulated and agreed to accept deportation flights without exception, the White House declared: "Today's events make clear to the world that America is respected again."

"A round in a larger fight": will there be further confrontations?

Although Petro and Trump reached a deal on Sunday that prevented a trade war and U.S. sanctions on Colombia, experts remain concerned about what happens next in the bilateral relationship.

Guzmán believes that even though Petro backed down under, he does not see this as the end of their dispute. "I don't think Petro sees it necessarily as a capitulation. I think Petro sees this as a round in a larger fight," Guzmán said.

For many observers, Trump and Petro were bound to clash sooner or later.

The two leaders, a former Marxist rebel and a billionaire right-wing businessman, have starkly different political views. They also have a penchant for populist politics and constant social media presence.

The President of the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) in Colombia, María Claudia Lacouture, spoke to The Latin Times about the confrontation.

"Even before the events of last Sunday, it was foreseeable that because of their ideologies, there would be differences between Presidents Trump and Petro," said Lacouture.

Indeed, since Trump's election victory in November, Colombian media has worried about possible pressure points between the two nations.

From coca cultivation to Petro's relations with Venezuela, there is no shortage of potential battlegrounds for the two leaders.

Concerns were further stoked by Trump's appointment of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State. The child of Cuban immigrants persecuted under the Castro regime, Rubio has a scathing view of Leftist governments like Petro's.

In May 2024, the former Florida Senator wrote a column blaming the Colombian president for destabilizing the region and referring to him as "Gustavo Chávez."

Washington's top diplomat's animosity towards Petro does not improve the chances of cordial relations.

In a note to Colombia Risk Analysis' clients, Guzmán warned that Petro and Trump will likely clash again.

"Petro is likely to seek new points of confrontation with Trump in international forums," read the note.

Lacouture also believes there will be more contention between the two leaders, telling The Latin Times that "we will certainly see new differences."

But she believes that these can be contained. "The binational relationship goes beyond the two presidents, it involves the Congresses but also businessmen and civil society," she added..

Could Trump's threats push Bogotá away from Washington?

In his note to clients, Guzmán wrote that in light of the deportation spat, Petro may pursue "efforts to diversify Colombia's political and commercial partnerships, distancing the country from the U.S."

A move away from the U.S. would be unprecedented in Colombia, which has long been considered one of Washington's closest political allies in the region.

It would also be risky, with Guzmán noting that the U.S. is Colombia's "main commercial, political, and military ally."

But Colombia does have other options and Petro's administration has looked to increase commercial ties with China, Latin America's top trading partner.

Last October, Colombia's Foreign Minister met with his Chinese counterpart to establish a joint working group to discuss Colombian accession to the Belt and Road Initiative. The year before, the two countries forged a "strategic partnership", signalling a mutual drive for closer relations.

On the same day that Bogotá and Washington hit a historic low-point in their relationship, the Chinese ambassador to Colombia told newspaper El Tiempo that China and Colombia "are in the best moment for our diplomatic relations."

But Lacouture told The Latin Times that any transition away from the U.S. would be difficult for Colombia.

"A market like the United States cannot be replaced from one day to the next; it requires years of work by both business leaders and the country," said the AmCham Colombia President.

She believes that cooler heads will prevail and that the two presidents may be able to work together on key issues.

"There is common ground between the two Presidents, such as immigration issues and the fight against drug trafficking," said Lacouture.

She then emphasised the importance of involving diplomats, lawmakers and business leaders in decision-making, rather than allowing two personalities to clash.

The future of the U.S - Colombian relationship may hinge on whether the two leaders can set aside personal differences and choose diplomacy.

As Lacouture concluded: "It is time to think about the welfare of citizens beyond personal or ideological interests."